2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania
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| Elections in Pennsylvania |
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 Government |
The 2024 United States presidential election in Pennsylvania took place on Tuesday, November 5, 2024, as part of the 2024 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia participated. Pennsylvania voters chose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Pennsylvania has 19 electoral votes in the Electoral College, following reapportionment due to the 2020 United States census in which the state lost a seat.[2]
A Northeastern swing state within the Rust Belt, Pennsylvania was seen as a pure toss-up this cycle. In 2016, Republican Donald Trump narrowly carried the state by 0.7% in his upset sweep of the Rust Belt and the first Republican presidential victory in Pennsylvania since 1988, but four years later lost the state to Democratic nominee Joe Biden by 1.2% as the latter defeated the former nationwide.
Pennsylvania was seen to hold the largest electoral prize of all the swing states in 2024. As such, it was generally believed that the winner of the state was highly likely to win the entire election. According to statistician Nate Silver, the state's winner was estimated to have a 90% chance of winning the presidency.[3] Major news organizations marked it as a tossup in the lead-up to the election.[4]
Trump won Pennsylvania with 50.4% of the vote to Kamala Harris's 48.7%, defeating her by a margin of roughly 1.7% and flipping the state. This was the largest margin of victory for a Republican candidate since 1988, as well as the first time since that election that a Republican won a majority in the state. Trump's victory is seen to have contributed to down-ballot victories for Republicans who won the races for the US Senate, Attorney General, Treasurer and Auditor. Trump also received more than 3.5 million votes which was a record for votes cast for any candidate in the history of the state.
Trump flipped Bucks and Monroe counties into the Republican column for the first time since 1988 and 2004, respectively. He also reclaimed Erie and Northampton counties which he lost in 2020, after having previously won them in 2016. Trump’s victory made him the first Republican candidate to carry Pennsylvania twice since Ronald Reagan did so in 1980 and 1984. As of 2024, Pennsylvania has together with Michigan and Wisconsin, the longest-running active streak among states of voting for the winning presidential candidate, having done so in the latest five presidential elections. The results also extended it to nine consecutive presidential elections where the winning party did not differ between those three states. However, unlike 2016 where Trump performed best in Wisconsin, Pennsylvania in 2024 proved to be Trump's largest margin of victory among the three Rust Belt states, and the only one in which he won a majority of the vote.
Primary elections
[edit]Democratic primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pledged | Unpledged | Total | |||
| Joe Biden (incumbent) | 926,633 | 88.2% | 159 | 159 | |
| Dean Phillips (withdrawn) | 68,310 | 6.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 55,611 | 5.3% | |||
| Total: | 1,050,554 | 100.0% | 159 | 27 | 186 |
Republican primary
[edit]| Candidate | Votes | Percentage | Actual delegate count | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bound | Unbound | Total | |||
| Donald Trump | 790,690 | 82.8% | 16 | 46 | 62 |
| Nikki Haley (withdrawn) | 157,228 | 16.5% | |||
| Write-in votes | 10,387 | 1.2% | |||
| Unprojected delegates: | 5 | 5 | |||
| Total: | 958,305 | 100.0% | 16 | 51 | 67 |
General election
[edit]Voting law changes
[edit]In 2022, no-excuse mail-in voting was upheld by the Pennsylvania Supreme Court.[7] Automatic voter registration was enacted in 2023, helping to register citizens when getting a driver's license.[8]
Trump assassination attempt
[edit]On July 13, 2024, Trump was shot and wounded in an assassination attempt while holding a campaign rally west of Butler, Pennsylvania. The former president was struck in the right ear while on stage and was surrounded by Secret Service agents until the shooter was killed by members of the Counter Assault Team. One rally-goer, Corey D. Comperatore, aged 50, of Sarver, PA, died and two others were critically injured.[9]
Predictions
[edit]| Source | Ranking | As of |
|---|---|---|
| The Cook Political Report[10] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| Decision Desk HQ/The Hill[12] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNN[13] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| CNalysis[14] | Lean D | November 4, 2024 |
| The Economist[15] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| 538[16] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| Inside Elections[17] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
| NBC News[18] | Tossup | November 4, 2024 |
Polling
[edit]Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided [a] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 270ToWin | October 23 – November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.2% | 48.2% | 3.6% | Tie |
| 538 | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 47.9% | 47.7% | 4.4% | Harris +0.2% |
| Silver Bulletin | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.0% | 48.1% | 3.9% | Trump +0.1% |
| Real Clear Politics | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.5% | 48.9% | 2.6% | Trump +0.4% |
| The Hill/DDHQ | through November 4, 2024 | November 4, 2024 | 48.0% | 48.8% | 3.2% | Trump +0.8% |
| Average | 48.12% | 48.34% | 3.8% | Trump +0.22% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[19] | November 3–5, 2024 | 2,333 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 52%[c] | 48% | – | ||||
| 2,103 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| 52%[c] | 48% | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[20] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Research Co.[21] | November 2–3, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[22] | November 1–3, 2024 | 1,089 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 47% | 48% | 5%[d] |
| Patriot Polling[23] | November 1–3, 2024 | 903 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[24] | November 1–2, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3%[e] |
| AtlasIntel[25] | November 1–2, 2024 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Emerson College[26] | October 30 – November 2, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49%[c] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[27] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,527 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 5% |
| 1,527 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4% | |||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[28] | October 25 – November 2, 2024 | 798 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 46% | 6%[g] |
| 699 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4%[h] | |||
| ActiVote[29] | October 10 – November 2, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 50.5% | 49.5% | – |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[30][A] | October 30–31, 2024 | 850 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[31] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[32] | October 29–31, 2024 | 800 (LV) | – | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| YouGov[33][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 982 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 956 (LV) | 51% | 48% | 1% | |||
| Morning Consult[34] | October 22−31, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[35] | October 27–30, 2024 | 460 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 49% | 47% | 4%[i] |
| Marist College[36] | October 27–30, 2024 | 1,558 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 51% | 47% | 2%[j] |
| 1,400 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 50% | 48% | 2%[j] | ||
| Echelon Insights[37] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 52% | 2% |
| AtlasIntel[38] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,299 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[39][C] | October 25–28, 2024 | 849 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4%[e] |
| Fox News[40] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% | ||
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| CBS News/YouGov[42] | October 22–28, 2024 | 1,273 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 1%[k] |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[43] | October 26–27, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 5%[d] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[44] | October 25–27, 2024 | 1,116 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 48% | 48% | 4%[e] |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[45][D] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | 6%[e] |
| CES/YouGov[46] | October 1–25, 2024 | 3,708 (A) | – | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| 3,685 (LV) | 49% | 48% | 3% | |||
| Emerson College[47][E] | October 21–22, 2024 | 860 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[48] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,586 (LV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 47% | 5%[e] |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[49][F] | October 18−22, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[50][G] | October 17−20, 2024 | 840 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 50% | 2% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[51] | October 16–20, 2024 | 866 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 812 (LV) | 50% | 48% | 2% | |||
| Franklin & Marshall College[52] | October 9−20, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 48% | 44% | 8% |
| 583 (LV) | ± 5.0% | 49% | 50% | 1% | ||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[53] | October 17−19, 2024 | 1,084 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 43% | 46% | 11%[l] |
| The Bullfinch Group[54] | October 11−18, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| 49% | 48% | 3%[m] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[55] | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 50% | 3% |
| Rose Institute/YouGov[56] | October 7–17, 2024 | 1,062 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 46% | 6%[n] |
| 1,043 (LV) | 50% | 48% | 2% | |||
| Morning Consult[34] | October 6−15, 2024 | 1,395 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Washington Post/Schar School[57] | September 30 – October 15, 2024 | 707 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 707 (LV) | 49% | 47% | 4% | |||
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[58][C] | October 9–13, 2024 | 1,072 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 50% | 3%[o] |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[59] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 4% |
| 857 (LV) | 50% | 47% | 3% | |||
| American Pulse Research & Polling[60] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | ± 2.8% | 49.5% | 50.5% | – |
| TIPP Insights[61][D] | October 7–9, 2024 | 1,079 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| 803 (LV) | 48% | 49% | 3% | |||
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)/McLaughlin & Associates (R)[62][H] | October 6–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[63] | October 7–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 49% | 4%[e] |
| Emerson College[64] | October 5–8, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3%[f] |
| 49%[c] | 50% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[65] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Research Co.[66] | October 5–7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[p] |
| 50%[c] | 49% | 1%[p] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[67] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Hunt Research[68][I] | October 2–7, 2024 | 1,037 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| Center for Working Class Politics/YouGov[69][J] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 47% | 45% | 8%[q] |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[70][K] | September 24 – October 2, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| OnMessage Inc. (R)[71][L] | September 28–29, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | 6%[d] |
| Patriot Polling[72] | September 27–29, 2024 | 816 (RV) | – | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| The Bullfinch Group[73][M] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[74] | September 26–29, 2024 | 1,090 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 48% | 7%[d] |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[75][N] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Emerson College[76][E] | September 27–28, 2024 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[r] |
| 49%[c] | 49% | 2%[r] | ||||
| AtlasIntel[77] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | 1% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[78] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 50% | 49% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[79] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 46% | 3% | |||
| ActiVote[80] | September 1–25, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 52% | 48% | – |
| Fox News[81] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | 2% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 49% | 2% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][O] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| Rodriguez Gudelunas Strategies[83][P] | September 19–23, 2024 | 400 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[84][C] | September 19–22, 2024 | 1,202 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[o] |
| 50%[c] | 49% | 1%[o] | ||||
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[85][F] | September 16–22, 2024 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 46% | 8%[o] |
| RMG Research[86][Q] | September 18–20, 2024 | 783 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5%[s] |
| 49%[c] | 49% | 3%[t] | ||||
| Muhlenberg College/Morning Call[87] | September 16–19, 2024 | 450 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 48% | 4%[u] |
| Emerson College[88] | September 15–18, 2024 | 880 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 47% | 48% | 5%[f] |
| 50%[c] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| MassINC Polling Group[89][R] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 52% | 47% | 1% |
| Morning Consult[34] | September 9−18, 2024 | 1,756 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 47% | 4% |
| Marist College[90] | September 12−17, 2024 | 1,663 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 48% | 3%[v] |
| 1,476 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 49% | 49% | 2%[j] | ||
| Washington Post[91] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 5%[t] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 48% | 4%[t] | |||
| Quinnipiac University[92] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 46% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[93] | September 11−16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 50% | 46% | 4% |
| 1,082 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Suffolk University/USA Today[94] | September 11−16, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[95] | September 14−15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 50% | 2%[o] |
| The presidential debate between Harris and Trump hosted by ABC | ||||||
| Morning Consult[34] | August 30 – September 8, 2024 | 1,910 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| co/efficient (R)[96] | September 4–6, 2024 | 889 (LV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| CBS News/YouGov[97] | September 3–6, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Patriot Polling[98] | September 1–3, 2024 | 857 (RV) | – | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Trafalgar Group (R)[99] | August 28–30, 2024 | 1,082 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 45% | 47% | 8%[d] |
| Wick Insights[100][S] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[101] | August 25–28, 2024 | 950 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 48% | 4%[f] |
| 49%[c] | 49% | 1%[f] | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 47% | 2% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 48% | 1% | ||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[103][A] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| 800 (RV) | 47% | 47% | 6% | |||
| Robert F. Kennedy Jr. suspends his presidential campaign and endorses Donald Trump. | ||||||
| YouGov[104][T] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 43% | 14%[w] |
| – (LV) | ± 6.0% | 47% | 47% | 6%[x] | ||
| Democratic National Convention concludes | ||||||
| ActiVote[105] | August 5–22, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 51% | 49% | – |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[106][U] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Spry Strategies (R)[107][V] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[108] | August 18–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | 7%[d] |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[109][W] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Focaldata[110] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 50% | 50% | – |
| Cygnal (R)[111] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Emerson College[112][E] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[113] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 50% | 47% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[114][X] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 45% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[115] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 49% | 46% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 4% | |||
| Trafalgar Group (R)[116] | August 6–8, 2024 | 1,078 (LV) | ± 2.9% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Navigator Research (D)[117] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[118] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 49% | 48% | 3% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[119][Y] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[120][Z] | July 29–30, 2024 | 627 (RV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 48% | 5% |
| GQR Research (D)[121] | July 26–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 50% | 46% | 4%[y] |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[122][AA] | July 23–29, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Quantus Insights (R)[123] | July 27–28, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[125][M] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 47% | 5% |
| Fox News[126] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 49% | 49% | 2% |
| Emerson College[127] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[128][D] | July 20–23, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 47% | 9% |
| SoCal Strategies (R)[129][AB] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Republican National Convention concludes | ||||||
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[130] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 40% | 47% | 13% |
| Republican National Convention begins | ||||||
| Attempted assassination of Donald Trump | ||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 45% | 51% | 4% |
| New York Times/Siena College[132] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| 872 (LV) | 47% | 48% | 5% | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 50% | 7% |
| Emerson College[134] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 49% | 11% |
| New York Times/Siena College[135] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 600 (LV) | 44% | 48% | 8% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
Aggregate polls
| Source of poll aggregation |
Dates administered |
Dates updated |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Cornel West Independent |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Others/ Undecided [z] |
Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Race to the WH | through October 28, 2024 | November 2, 2024 | 48.0% | 47.5% | 1.0% | — | 0.6% | 2.9% | Harris +0.5% |
| 270toWin | October 17 – 28, 2024 | November 2, 2024 | 47.9% | 47.9% | 0.8% | — | 0.7% | 2.7% | Tie |
| Average | 47.95% | 47.7% | 0.9% | — | 0.65% | 2.8% | Harris +0.25% | ||
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HarrisX[19] | November 3–5, 2024 | 2,333 (RV) | ± 2.3% | 48% | 45% | 1% | 1% | – | 5% |
| 50%[c] | 47% | 2% | 1% | – | – | ||||
| 2,103 (LV) | 50% | 46% | 1% | 0% | – | 3% | |||
| 51.0%[c] | 47.5% | 1.0% | 0.5% | – | – | ||||
| AtlasIntel[20] | November 3–4, 2024 | 1,840 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 49% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Survation[136] | November 1–4, 2024 | 941 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| 915 (LV) | 50.6% | 47.8% | – | 0.9% | 0.7% | – | |||
| AtlasIntel[25] | November 1–2, 2024 | 2,049 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[27] | October 29 – November 2, 2024 | 1,527 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 1,527 (LV) | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% | |||
| Focaldata[137] | October 3 – November 1, 2024 | 2,373 (LV) | – | 50% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | – |
| 2,119 (RV) | ± 2.0% | 51% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | – | ||
| 2,373 (A) | – | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 2% | 1% | ||
| AtlasIntel[31] | October 30–31, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Data for Progress (D)[138] | October 25–31, 2024 | 908 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 48% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| YouGov[33][B] | October 25–31, 2024 | 982 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 46% | 0% | 1% | – | 5% |
| 956 (LV) | 49% | 46% | 0% | 0% | – | 5% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[139] | October 28–31, 2024 | 1,596 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| Suffolk University/USA Today[140] | October 27–30, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 49% | 49% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% |
| Echelon Insights[37] | October 27–30, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.5% | 46% | 51% | – | 1% | 0% | 2% |
| Washington Post[141] | October 26–30, 2024 | 1,204 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3%[t] |
| 1,204 (LV) | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% | |||
| AtlasIntel[38] | October 25–29, 2024 | 1,299 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Quinnipiac University[41] | October 24–28, 2024 | 2,186 (LV) | ± 2.1% | 46% | 47% | – | 2% | 1% | 4% |
| CNN/SSRS[142] | October 23–28, 2024 | 819 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 48% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[143] | October 25–27, 2024 | 1,116 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| North Star Opinion Research (R)[45][D] | October 22–26, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[144] | October 16–23, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[145] | October 20–22, 2024 | 1,586 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[51] | October 16–20, 2024 | 866 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 2% | 2% |
| 812 (LV) | 50% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 1% | |||
| Franklin & Marshall College[52] | October 9–20, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.3% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[146] | October 16–18, 2024 | 1,256 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[55] | October 12–17, 2024 | 2,048 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 47% | 50% | – | 2% | 0% | 1% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[147] | October 12–14, 2024 | 1,649 (LV) | – | 48% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[59] | October 7–10, 2024 | 857 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| 857 (LV) | 49% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 5% | |||
| American Pulse Research & Polling[60] | October 2–10, 2024 | 1,193 (LV) | – | 48% | 49% | – | 2% | 0% | 1%[o] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[148] | October 8–9, 2024 | 707 (LV) | – | 46% | 48% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| TIPP Insights[61][D] | October 7–9, 2024 | 1,079 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 49% | 45% | 1% | 1% | – | 4% |
| 803 (LV) | 48% | 49% | 1% | 0% | – | 2% | |||
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[149] | October 2–9, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| J.L. Partners[150][AC] | October 5–8, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Quinnipiac University[67] | October 3–7, 2024 | 1,412 (LV) | ± 2.6% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Hunt Research[68][I] | October 2–7, 2024 | 1,037 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[151] | September 27 – October 2, 2024 | 5,686 (LV) | – | 48% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 4% |
| The Bullfinch Group[73][M] | September 26–29, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 50% | 46% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| AtlasIntel[77] | September 20–25, 2024 | 1,775 (LV) | ± 2.0% | 48% | 51% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[79] | September 19–25, 2024 | 993 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 50% | 44% | – | 0% | 4% | 2% |
| 924 (LV) | 51% | 45% | – | 0% | 3% | 1% | |||
| Fox News[81] | September 20−24, 2024 | 1,021 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| 775 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | – | 2% | 2% | 1% | ||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[82][O] | September 17–24, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 49% | 47% | – | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[152] | September 16–19, 2024 | 1,086 (LV) | – | 47% | 47% | – | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| University of Massachusetts Lowell/YouGov[153] | September 11–19, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| MassINC Polling Group[89][R] | September 12−18, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 50% | 46% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[92] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,331 (LV) | ± 2.7% | 51% | 45% | − | 1% | 0% | 3% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[154] | September 4–15, 2024 | 890 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 49% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[155] | September 6–9, 2024 | 801 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | – | 0% | 1% | 9% |
| YouGov[156][B] | August 23 – September 3, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 46% | 45% | 0% | 1% | – | 8%[o] |
| Wick Insights[100][S] | August 27–29, 2024 | 1,607 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| CNN/SSRS[157] | August 23–29, 2024 | 789 (LV) | ± 4.7% | 47% | 47% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[158] | August 25–28, 2024 | 1,071 (LV) | – | 46% | 45% | – | 1% | 0% | 8% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[102] | August 23–26, 2024 | 803 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 51% | 46% | – | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 758 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 51% | 45% | – | 2% | 1% | 1% |
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[78] | September 19–25, 2024 | 474 (LV) | – | 49% | 47% | 1% | 3% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[159][AD] | September 16–20, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 47% | 48% | 1% | 4% |
| Washington Post[91] | September 12−16, 2024 | 1,003 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4%[t] |
| 1,003 (LV) | 48% | 47% | 1% | 4% |
Hypothetical polling with Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein vs. Chase Oliver
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Chase Oliver Libertarian |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[40] | October 24–28, 2024 | 1,310 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 48% | 46% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 1% |
| 1,057 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 0% | 1% | ||
| Wall Street Journal[65] | September 28 – October 8, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 45% | 46% | 0% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 6% |
| Global Strategy Group (D)/North Star Opinion Research (R)[75][N] | September 23–29, 2024 | 408 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 47% | 47% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 5% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[93] | September 11−16, 2024 | 1,082 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 5% |
| 1,082 (LV) | 49% | 45% | 0% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 4% | |||
| YouGov[104][T] | August 15–23, 2024 | 500 (A) | ± 5.1% | 43% | 41% | 3% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 11%[aa] |
| – (LV) | ± 5.9% | 48% | 46% | 2% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 2% | ||
| Spry Strategies (R)[107][V] | August 14–20, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – | 1% | – | 4% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[109][W] | August 13–17, 2024 | 1,312 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Focaldata[110] | August 6–16, 2024 | 719 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% |
| 719 (RV) | 49% | 46% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 1% | |||
| 719 (A) | 47% | 47% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 2% | |||
| Cygnal (R)[111] | August 14–15, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.4% | 43% | 44% | 5% | 2% | 2% | 0% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[160] | August 12–15, 2024 | 825 (LV) | – | 46% | 44% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 6% |
| Emerson College[112][E] | August 13–14, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 47% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| Quinnipiac University[113] | August 8–12, 2024 | 1,738 (LV) | ± 2.4% | 48% | 45% | 4% | – | 0% | 0% | 3% |
| The Bullfinch Group[114][X] | August 8–11, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 41% | 6% | 2% | 0% | – | 6% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[161] | July 31 – August 11, 2024 | 920 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 43% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 3% |
| New York Times/Siena College[115] | August 6–9, 2024 | 693 (RV) | ± 4.2% | 45% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 2% | 1% | 5% |
| 693 (LV) | 46% | 44% | 4% | 0% | 1% | 1% | 3% | |||
| Navigator Research (D)[117] | July 31 – August 8, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 1% | 2% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[118] | July 26 – August 8, 2024 | 411 (LV) | – | 48% | 43% | 5% | 0% | 0% | – | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[162] | July 31 – August 3, 2024 | 743 (LV) | – | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[124] | July 24–28, 2024 | 804 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 46% | 3% | – | 1% | 4% | 2% |
| The Bullfinch Group[125][M] | July 23–25, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 44% | 6% | – | 1% | 1% | 4% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[163] | July 22–24, 2024 | 851 (LV) | – | 42% | 46% | 5% | – | 0% | 0% | 7% |
| Fox News[126] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | – | 3% |
| Emerson College[127] | July 22–23, 2024 | 850 (RV) | ± 3.3% | 44% | 46% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 5% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | ||||||||||
| Public Policy Polling (D)[164][AE] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 43% | 45% | 4% | – | 2% | – | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College[132] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 3% | – | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | 42% | 43% | 6% | 0% | 2% | – | 7% | |||
Kamala Harris vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Z to A Research (D)[165][AF] | August 23–26, 2024 | 613 (LV) | – | 46% | 46% | 5% | 3% |
| Fabrizio Ward (R)[106][U] | August 19–21, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 43% | 43% | 3% | 11% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[119][Y] | July 29 – August 1, 2024 | 600 (LV) | – | 45% | 45% | 4% | 6% |
| Susquehanna Polling and Research (R)[166] | July 22–28, 2024 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 7% |
| Joe Biden announces his withdrawal from the race; Kamala Harris declares her candidacy for president. | |||||||
| Civiqs[167][AF] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 44% | 46% | 5% | 5% |
Hypothetical polling with Joe Biden and Donald Trump
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SoCal Strategies (R)[103][A] | August 23, 2024 | 713 (LV) | – | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 800 (RV) | 41% | 46% | 13% | |||
| SoCal Strategies (R)[129][AB] | July 20–21, 2024 | 500 (LV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 50% | 4% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[164][AE] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 44% | 49% | 7% |
| InsiderAdvantage (R)[130] | July 15–16, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[168][AG] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[169][AH] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| New York Times/Siena College[132] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| 872 (LV) | 45% | 48% | 7% | |||
| Echelon Insights[170][AI] | July 1–8, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 48% | 47% | 7% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 51% | 5% |
| Emerson College[172][AG] | June 30 – July 2, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Remington Research Group (R)[173] | June 29 – July 1, 2024 | 673 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 43% | 48% | 9% |
| Cygnal (R)[174] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| The Bullfinch Group[175][M] | June 14–19, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.46% | 45% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[176] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[177] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | 45% | 47% | 8% | |||
| KAConsulting (R)[178][AJ] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Prime Group[179][AK] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 51% | 49% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 48% | 6% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[180] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[181] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| 1,023 (LV) | 45% | 48% | 7% | |||
| Fabrizio Ward (R)/Impact Research (D)[182][O] | April 24–30, 2024 | 1,398 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| Emerson College[183] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| 49%[c] | 51% | – | ||||
| CBS News/YouGov[184] | April 19–25, 2024 | 1,288 (LV) | ± 3.1% | 49% | 50% | 1% |
| Muhlenberg College[185] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 44% | 15% |
| John Zogby Strategies[186][AL] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Kaplan Strategies[187] | April 20–21, 2024 | 802 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 46% | 13% |
| Fox News[188] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[189] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| The Bullfinch Group[190][X] | March 29 – April 3, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 44% | 18%[ab] |
| Franklin & Marshall College[191] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 48% | 38% | 14% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[192] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 46% | 14%[ac] |
| 42% | 44% | 14% | ||||
| 49%[c] | 51% | − | ||||
| Wall Street Journal[193] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[194][AM] | March 12–19, 2024 | 400 (LV) | ± 5.5% | 45% | 49% | 6% |
| CNN/SSRS[195] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 46% | 8% |
| Emerson College[196] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 47% | 10% |
| 48%[c] | 52% | – | ||||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Fox News[198] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 47% | 49% | 4% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[199] | February 27 – March 7, 2024 | 450 (LV) | ± 4.6% | 50% | 45% | 5% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[200] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | 8% |
| Emerson College[134] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| Chism Strategies[201] | February 6–8, 2024 | 500 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 32% | 40% | 28% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[202] | January 22–25, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 42% | 48% | 10% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[203] | January 17–28, 2024 | 507 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Focaldata[204] | January 17–23, 2024 | 834 (A) | – | 38% | 46% | 16%[ad] |
| – (LV) | 42% | 47% | 11%[ae] | |||
| – (LV) | 49%[c] | 51% | – | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[205] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[206] | January 15–21, 2024 | 745 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 39% | 14% |
| Quinnipiac University[207] | January 4–8, 2024 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 49% | 46% | 5%[af] |
| The Bullfinch Group[208] | December 14–18, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 45% | 10% |
| Change Research/Future Majority (D)[209] | December 3–7, 2023 | (RVs) | – | 40% | 46% | 14% |
| Muhlenberg College[210] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[211] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 46% | 10% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[212] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 37% | 41% | 22%[ag] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 39% | 41% | 20%[ah] | |||
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[213] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 47% | 9% |
| Emerson College[214] | October 30 – November 4, 2023 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 46% | 11% |
| 816 (LV) | – | 45% | 49% | 6% | ||
| New York Times/Siena College[135] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 44% | 48% | 8% |
| (600 LV) | 44% | 49% | 7% | |||
| Franklin & Marshall College[215] | October 11–22, 2023 | 873 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 44% | 42% | 14% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[216] | October 5–10, 2023 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[217] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 43% | 42% | 15% |
| Emerson College[218] | October 1–4, 2023 | 430 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 36% | 45% | 19% |
| Quinnipiac University[219] | September 28 – October 2, 2023 | 1,725 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 45% | 47% | 8% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[220] | September 19–28, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 47% | 45% | 8%[ai] |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[221][AN] | September 25–26, 2023 | 673 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| National Public Affairs[222] | September 14–17, 2023 | 622 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 47% | 45% | 8% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[223] | August 9–20, 2023 | 723 (RV) | ± 4.5% | 42% | 40% | 18% |
| Prime Group[224][AK] | June 14–28, 2023 | 500 (RV) | – | 50% | 50% | – |
| 38% | 43% | 19%[aj] | ||||
| Quinnipiac University[225] | June 22–26, 2023 | 1,584 (RV) | ± 2.5% | 46% | 47% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[226][AO] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 48% | 45% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[227][AO] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[228] | March 27 – April 7, 2023 | 643 (RV) | ± 4.9% | 36% | 35% | 29% |
| Susquehanna Polling & Research[229] | February 19–26, 2023 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.2% | 48% | 41% | 11% |
| Targoz Market Research[230] | November 2–6, 2022 | 904 (RV) | – | 48% | 48% | 4% |
| 631 (LV) | ± 3.8% | 46% | 52% | 2% | ||
| Emerson College[231] | October 28–31, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 44% | 44% | 12% |
| Emerson College[232] | September 23–26, 2022 | 1,000 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 45% | 46% | 9% |
| Echelon Insights[233][AI] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 48% | 43% | 9% |
| Emerson College[234] | August 22–23, 2022 | 1,034 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 47% | 11% |
| PEM Management Corporation (R)[235][AP] | July 22–24, 2022 | 300 (LV) | ± 5.7% | 42% | 44% | 14% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[236] | July 19–21, 2022 | 712 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 41% | 17% |
| Blueprint Polling (D)[237] | February 15–16, 2022 | 635 (LV) | ± 3.9% | 45% | 40% | 15% |
| Fabrizio, Lee & Associates (R)[238][H] | November 11–16, 2021 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 45% | 51% | 4% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerson College[168][AG] | July 15–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 46% | 4% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Rasmussen Reports (R)[169][AH] | July 5–12, 2024 | 1,041 (LV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| YouGov[239][B] | July 4–12, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.4% | 40% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| New York Times/Siena College[132] | July 9–11, 2024 | 872 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 0% | 2% | 11% |
| 872 (LV) | 40% | 42% | 7% | 0% | 2% | 9% | |||
| Echelon Insights[170][AI] | July 1–8, 2024 | 612 (LV) | ± 4.9% | 44% | 42% | 6% | 1% | 2% | 5%[ak] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[171] | July 1–5, 2024 | 794 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 6% |
| Cygnal (R)[174] | June 27–28, 2024 | 800 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 38% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 7% |
| Emerson College[176] | June 13–18, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 5% | 0% | 1% | 12% |
| Marist College[240] | June 3–6, 2024 | 1,181 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 45% | 47% | 3% | 1% | 1% | 3%[al] |
| KAConsulting (R)[178][AJ] | May 15–19, 2024 | 600 (RV) | – | 39% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 3% | 7%[am] |
| Prime Group[179][AK] | May 9–16, 2024 | 487 (RV) | – | 45% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | – |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[133] | May 7–13, 2024 | 812 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 45% | 7% | 2% | 1% | 3% |
| Cook Political Report/BSG (R)/GS Strategy Group (D)[180] | May 6–13, 2024 | 730 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 2% | 2% | 6% |
| New York Times/Siena College/Philadelphia Inquirer[181] | April 28 – May 9, 2024 | 1,023 (RV) | ± 3.6% | 36% | 40% | 10% | 0% | 1% | 13%[an] |
| 1,023 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 9% | 0% | 1% | 12%[an] | |||
| Emerson College[183] | April 25–29, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 41% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 1% | 7% |
| Fox News[188] | April 11–16, 2024 | 1,141 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 44% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 3% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[189] | April 8–15, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 43% | 8% | 0% | 1% | 6% |
| Wall Street Journal[193] | March 17–24, 2024 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 38% | 41% | 7% | 3% | 1% | 10% |
| Emerson College[196] | March 10–13, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[197] | March 8–12, 2024 | 807 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 44% | 7% | 0% | 1% | 10% |
| Fox News[198] | March 7–11, 2024 | 1,149 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 42% | 42% | 9% | 2% | 2% | 3% |
| Axis Research[241][AQ] | February 25–27, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 40% | 39% | 8% | 1% | 2% | 20% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[200] | February 12–20, 2024 | 803 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 36% | 45% | 8% | 1% | 1% | 9% |
| Emerson College[134] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 37% | 42% | 8% | 2% | 1% | 10% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[242] | January 16–21, 2024 | 795 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 40% | 43% | 7% | 1% | 1% | 8% |
| Quinnipiac University[207] | January 4–8, 2023 | 1,680 (RV) | ± 2.4% | 41% | 39% | 11% | 2% | 4% | 3%[ao] |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[243] | November 27 – December 6, 2023 | 799 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 39% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 12% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[212] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 35% | 40% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 14%[ap] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 37% | 41% | 9% | 1% | 1% | 11%[t] |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[164][AE] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 42% | 46% | 4% | 2% | 6% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[244] | July 16–18, 2024 | 688 (LV) | – | 41% | 45% | 4% | 1% | 9%[aq] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[245] | July 8–10, 2024 | 719 (LV) | – | 40% | 45% | 6% | 1% | 8%[aq] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[246] | June 8–11, 2024 | 456 (LV) | – | 42% | 44% | 5% | 1% | 8%[aq] |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[247] | May 2–4, 2024 | 635 (LV) | – | 41% | 43% | 7% | 0% | 9% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[191] | March 20–31, 2024 | 870 (RV) | ± 4.0% | 42% | 40% | 9% | 3% | 8% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[192] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 40% | 44% | 8% | 2% | 6% |
| 42%[c] | 46% | 9% | 3% | − | ||||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[248] | March 14–17, 2024 | 775 (LV) | – | 41% | 44% | 7% | 1% | 7% |
| Franklin & Marshall College[203] | January 17–28, 2024 | 494 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 42% | 37% | 8% | 2% | 11% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Civiqs[167][AF] | July 13–16, 2024 | 536 (RV) | ± 4.7% | 42% | 46% | 6% | 6% |
| 1983 Labs[249] | June 28–30, 2024 | 741 (LV) | ± 3.6% | 41% | 46% | 3% | 10%[ak] |
| Mainstreet Research/Florida Atlantic University[177] | May 30–31, 2024 | 1,012 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 41% | 39% | 8% | 12% |
| 923 (LV) | 43% | 42% | 7% | 8% | |||
| Muhlenberg College[185] | April 15–25, 2024 | 417 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 35% | 35% | 18% | 12% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[192] | March 26–30, 2024 | 1,305 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 39% | 45% | 7% | 6%[ar] |
| 40%[c] | 45% | 8% | 7%[as] | ||||
| The Bullfinch Group[250][M] | March 22–26, 2024 | 800 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 44% | 41% | 7% | 8% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[251] | December 28–30, 2023 | 1,069 (LV) | – | 39% | 40% | 9% | 12% |
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[252] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 44% | 7% | 10% |
| Big Data Poll (R)[212] | November 16–19, 2023 | 1,382 (RV) | ± 2.6% | 36% | 40% | 8% | 16%[at] |
| 1,284 (LV) | 38% | 41% | 8% | 13%[au] | |||
| New York Times/Siena College[253] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6 | 35% | 35% | 23% | 7% |
| 600 (LV) | 36% | 36% | 21% | 7% | |||
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[217] | October 7–9, 2023 | 900 (LV) | – | 39% | 39% | 9% | 13% |
Joe Biden vs. Donald Trump vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNN/SSRS[195] | March 13–18, 2024 | 1,132 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 38% | 40% | 16% | 4% | 4% |
| Bloomberg/Morning Consult[254] | October 30 – November 7, 2023 | 805 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 38% | 41% | 8% | 1% | 12% |
Hypothetical polling with other candidates
Joe Biden vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[186][AL] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 47% | 42% | 11% |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Independent |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| John Zogby Strategies[186][AL] | April 13–21, 2024 | 628 (LV) | – | 40% | 41% | 19% |
Gavin Newsom vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gavin Newsom Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 51% | 7% |
| Emerson College[134] | February 14–16, 2024 | 1,000 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 33% | 48% | 19% |
Gretchen Whitmer vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Gretchen Whitmer Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[126] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 48% | 49% | 3% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 42% | 50% | 8% |
JB Pritzker vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
JB Pritzker Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 37% | 50% | 13% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fox News[126] | July 22–24, 2024 | 1,034 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 54% | 44% | 2% |
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 47% | 46% | 7% |
| Muhlenberg College[210] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 48% | 37% | 15% |
Josh Shapiro vs. Donald Trump vs Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Josh Shapiro Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[164][AE] | July 17–18, 2024 | 624 (RV) | ± 3.8% | 47% | 43% | 3% | 1% | 6% |
Pete Buttigieg vs. Donald Trump
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Pete Buttigieg Democratic |
Donald Trump Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Public Policy Polling (D)[131][Z] | July 11–12, 2024 | 537 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 9% |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[210] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 33% | 38% | 29% |
| New York Times/Siena College[255] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 38% | 48% | 14% |
| 600 (LV) | 39% | 49% | 12% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[220] | September 19–28, 2023 | 700 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 44% | 45% | 11%[ai] |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[252] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 36% | 26% | 18% | 20%[av] |
Joe Biden vs. Nikki Haley vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Cornel West vs. Jill Stein
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Nikki Haley Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Cornel West Independent |
Jill Stein Green |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axis Research[241][AQ] | February 25–27, 2024 | 601 (RV) | ± 4.1% | 39% | 19% | 13% | 1% | 1% | 27% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhlenberg College[210] | November 20 – December 13, 2023 | 421 (RV) | ± 6.0% | 41% | 39% | 20% |
| New York Times/Siena College[255] | October 22 – November 3, 2023 | 600 (RV) | ± 4.6% | 43% | 45% | 12% |
| 600 (LV) | 43% | 47% | 10% | |||
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[256] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 48% | 39% | 12% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[226][AO] | June 17–19, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 45% | 48% | 7% |
| Public Opinion Strategies (R)[227][AO] | April 11–13, 2023 | 500 (RV) | ± 4.4% | 42% | 45% | 13% |
| Echelon Insights[233][AI] | August 31 – September 7, 2022 | 828 (LV) | ± 3.5% | 46% | 42% | 12% |
Joe Biden vs. Ron DeSantis vs. Robert F. Kennedy Jr.
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Joe Biden Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Robert Kennedy Jr Independent |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Redfield & Wilton Strategies[252] | November 27–29, 2023 | 887 (LV) | – | 37% | 34% | 13% | 12%[aw] |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. vs. Ron DeSantis
| Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[b] |
Margin of error |
Robert F. Kennedy Jr. Democratic |
Ron DeSantis Republican |
Other / Undecided |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Susquehanna Polling & Research (R)[256] | May 2–8, 2023 | 700 (LV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 38% | 20% |
Results
[edit]| Party | Candidate | Votes | % | ±% | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Republican | 3,542,022 | 50.4 | +1.5 | ||
| Democratic | 3,420,423 | 48.6 | −1.4 | ||
| Green | 34,508 | 0.5 | |||
| Libertarian | 33,299 | 0.5 | −0.7 | ||
| Write-in | |||||
| Total votes | |||||
Results by county
[edit]
| County[258] | Donald Trump Republican |
Kamala Harris Democratic |
Various candidates Other parties |
Margin | Total votes cast | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| # | % | # | % | # | % | # | % | ||
| Adams | 40,248 | 66.12% | 19,842 | 32.60% | 781 | 1.28% | 20,405 | 33.52% | 60,870 |
| Allegheny | 283,595 | 39.19% | 429,916 | 59.38% | 10,266 | 1.43% | 145,910 | 20.19% | 722,676 |
| Armstrong | 28,296 | 76.05% | 8,553 | 22.99% | 360 | 0.97% | 19,743 | 53.06% | 37,209 |
| Beaver | 56,837 | 59.71% | 37,196 | 39.07% | 1,161 | 1.22% | 19,639 | 20.64% | 95,190 |
| Bedford | 23,658 | 83.84% | 4,336 | 15.37% | 224 | 0.79% | 19,322 | 68.47% | 28,218 |
| Berks | 116,677 | 55.45% | 91,125 | 43.31% | 2,624 | 1.25% | 25,544 | 12.14% | 210,400 |
| Blair | 46,352 | 71.16% | 18,127 | 27.83% | 661 | 1.01% | 28,225 | 43.33% | 65,140 |
| Bradford | 22,937 | 73.53% | 7,990 | 25.62% | 265 | 0.85% | 14,947 | 47.91% | 31,192 |
| Bucks | 198,764 | 49.39% | 198,472 | 49.32% | 5,198 | 1.29% | 292 | 0.07% | 402,434 |
| Butler | 79,773 | 65.45% | 40,661 | 33.36% | 1,444 | 1.19% | 39,112 | 32.09% | 121,878 |
| Cambria | 49,408 | 69.25% | 21,177 | 29.68% | 760 | 1.06% | 28,231 | 39.57% | 71,345 |
| Cameron | 1,654 | 74.54% | 538 | 24.25% | 27 | 1.22% | 1,116 | 50.29% | 2,219 |
| Carbon | 23,708 | 66.90% | 11,394 | 32.15% | 334 | 0.94% | 12,314 | 34.75% | 35,436 |
| Centre | 38,829 | 47.85% | 41,119 | 50.67% | 1,205 | 1.48% | 5,518 | 2.82% | 2,290 |
| Chester | 137,291 | 42.07% | 184,218 | 56.45% | 4,863 | 1.48% | 46,927 | 14.38% | 326,362 |
| Clarion | 15,035 | 76.01% | 4,561 | 23.06% | 184 | 0.93% | 10,474 | 52.95% | 19,780 |
| Clearfield | 30,841 | 75.23% | 9,647 | 23.81% | 387 | 0.95% | 21,194 | 51.42% | 40,515 |
| Clinton | 12,965 | 69.83% | 5,395 | 29.06% | 207 | 1.11% | 7,570 | 40.77% | 18,567 |
| Columbia | 21,190 | 64.78% | 11,083 | 33.88% | 436 | 1.34% | 10,107 | 30.90% | 32,709 |
| Crawford | 29,504 | 69.17% | 12,699 | 29.77% | 453 | 1.07% | 16,805 | 39.40% | 42,656 |
| Cumberland | 80,267 | 53.85% | 66,255 | 44.45% | 2,546 | 1.71% | 14,012 | 9.40% | 149,608 |
| Dauphin | 69,474 | 46.29% | 78,327 | 52.19% | 2,280 | 1.52% | 8,853 | 5.90% | 150,081 |
| Delaware | 123,421 | 37.61% | 201,324 | 61.35% | 3,427 | 1.05% | 77,903 | 23.74% | 328,172 |
| Elk | 12,543 | 72.87% | 4,483 | 26.04% | 187 | 1.09% | 8,060 | 46.83% | 17,213 |
| Erie | 68,862 | 50.06% | 67,436 | 49.02% | 1,273 | 0.93% | 1,426 | 1.04% | 137,955 |
| Fayette | 43,631 | 68.67% | 19,547 | 30.76% | 362 | 0.57% | 24,804 | 37.91% | 63,540 |
| Forest | 1,902 | 71.77% | 724 | 27.32% | 24 | 0.91% | 1,178 | 44.45% | 2,650 |
| Franklin | 59,604 | 70.82% | 23,543 | 27.97% | 1,016 | 1.20% | 36,061 | 42.85% | 84,163 |
| Fulton | 7,039 | 86.08% | 1,102 | 13.48% | 36 | 0.44% | 5,937 | 72.60% | 8,177 |
| Greene | 12,319 | 71.47% | 4,592 | 26.64% | 325 | 1.88% | 7,727 | 44.83% | 17,236 |
| Huntingdon | 17,627 | 75.96% | 5,368 | 23.13% | 211 | 0.91% | 12,259 | 52.83% | 23,206 |
| Indiana | 29,215 | 69.01% | 12,697 | 29.99% | 425 | 1.01% | 16,518 | 39.02% | 42,337 |
| Jefferson | 18,235 | 78.66% | 4,707 | 20.30% | 241 | 1.04% | 13,528 | 58.36% | 23,183 |
| Juniata | 9,721 | 80.08% | 2,290 | 18.86% | 128 | 1.06% | 7,431 | 61.22% | 12,139 |
| Lackawanna | 56,261 | 48.12% | 59,510 | 50.90% | 1,154 | 0.99% | 3,249 | 2.78% | 116,925 |
| Lancaster | 166,261 | 57.20% | 120,119 | 41.32% | 4,292 | 1.48% | 46,142 | 15.88% | 290,672 |
| Lawrence | 31,347 | 66.34% | 15,440 | 32.67% | 468 | 0.99% | 15,907 | 33.67% | 47,255 |
| Lebanon | 48,282 | 65.26% | 24,734 | 33.43% | 970 | 1.32% | 23,548 | 31.83% | 73,986 |
| Lehigh | 91,207 | 48.05% | 96,317 | 50.74% | 2,286 | 1.20% | 5,110 | 2.69% | 189,810 |
| Luzerne | 92,397 | 59.11% | 62,445 | 39.95% | 1,483 | 0.95% | 29,952 | 19.16% | 156,325 |
| Lycoming | 41,961 | 70.11% | 17,216 | 28.77% | 669 | 1.11% | 24,745 | 41.34% | 59,846 |
| McKean | 14,401 | 72.92% | 5,115 | 25.90% | 234 | 1.18% | 9,286 | 47.02% | 19,750 |
| Mercer | 37,761 | 64.45% | 20,145 | 34.38% | 685 | 1.17% | 17,616 | 30.07% | 58,591 |
| Mifflin | 17,184 | 77.69% | 4,735 | 21.41% | 201 | 0.91% | 12,449 | 56.28% | 22,120 |
| Monroe | 42,690 | 49.90% | 42,017 | 49.11% | 842 | 0.99% | 673 | 0.79% | 85,549 |
| Montgomery | 198,311 | 37.91% | 317,103 | 60.62% | 7,724 | 1.48% | 118,792 | 22.71% | 523,138 |
| Montour | 5,944 | 59.76% | 3,862 | 38.83% | 141 | 1.41% | 2,082 | 20.93% | 9,947 |
| Northampton | 89,737 | 50.44% | 86,430 | 48.58% | 1,738 | 0.98% | 3,307 | 1.86% | 177,905 |
| Northumberland | 30,240 | 69.30% | 12,863 | 29.48% | 531 | 1.22% | 17,377 | 39.82% | 43,634 |
| Perry | 19,073 | 73.87% | 6,385 | 24.73% | 361 | 1.40% | 12,688 | 49.14% | 25,819 |
| Philadelphia | 144,311 | 19.95% | 568,571 | 78.57% | 10,716 | 1.48% | 423,717 | 58.62% | 722,741 |
| Pike | 21,537 | 61.48% | 13,132 | 37.49% | 362 | 1.03% | 8,405 | 23.99% | 35,031 |
| Potter | 7,334 | 80.43% | 1,675 | 18.37% | 109 | 1.19% | 5,659 | 62.06% | 9,118 |
| Schuylkill | 51,665 | 70.43% | 20,882 | 28.46% | 814 | 1.11% | 30,783 | 41.97% | 73,361 |
| Snyder | 14,664 | 73.02% | 5,239 | 26.09% | 178 | 0.89% | 9,425 | 46.93% | 20,081 |
| Somerset | 31,993 | 78.06% | 8,596 | 20.97% | 398 | 0.97% | 23,397 | 59.07% | 40,987 |
| Sullivan | 2,721 | 73.13% | 976 | 26.23% | 24 | 0.64% | 1,745 | 46.90% | 3,721 |
| Susquehanna | 16,114 | 71.71% | 6,093 | 27.11% | 264 | 1.17% | 10,021 | 44.60% | 22,471 |
| Tioga | 16,272 | 75.17% | 5,100 | 23.56% | 274 | 1.27% | 11,172 | 51.61% | 21,646 |
| Union | 12,969 | 61.01% | 8,015 | 37.71% | 273 | 1.28% | 4,954 | 23.30% | 21,257 |
| Venango | 18,883 | 70.44% | 7,624 | 28.44% | 302 | 1.13% | 11,259 | 42.00% | 26,809 |
| Warren | 14,345 | 68.99% | 6,212 | 29.88% | 235 | 1.12% | 8,133 | 39.11% | 20,792 |
| Washington | 75,929 | 62.26% | 44,910 | 36.82% | 1,117 | 0.92% | 31,019 | 25.44% | 121,956 |
| Wayne | 20,071 | 68.00% | 9,150 | 31.00% | 295 | 0.99% | 10,921 | 37.00% | 29,516 |
| Westmoreland | 135,008 | 63.65% | 74,904 | 35.32% | 2,186 | 1.04% | 60,104 | 28.33% | 212,098 |
| Wyoming | 10,222 | 67.72% | 4,680 | 31.00% | 193 | 1.28% | 5,542 | 36.72% | 15,095 |
| York | 154,884 | 61.92% | 91,926 | 36.75% | 3,326 | 1.33% | 62,958 | 25.17% | 250,136 |
| Totals | 3,542,898 | 50.22% | 3,422,188 | 48.51% | 89,596 | 1.27% | 120,710 | 1.71% | 7,054,642 |
Analysis
[edit]Compared to 2020, Trump gained in nearly every county except for a few scattered around the interior of the state. His strongest gains were concentrated in Northeastern Pennsylvania, which, prior to his first run in 2016, was Democratic and historically had an economy focused around coal mining. He also made notable gains in the Philadelphia area, even in the suburban counties that had shifted against him in both of his past runs.
Trump flipped Erie and Northampton Counties, which had both supported him in 2016, but not 2020. He also flipped Bucks and Monroe, neither of which had gone Republican in decades prior.
See also
[edit]- United States presidential elections in Pennsylvania
- 2024 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2024 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2024 United States elections
Notes
[edit]- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v w x Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n o p q r s t u v With voters who lean towards a given candidate
- ^ a b c d e f "Other" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e f "Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c d e f g h "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Neither/Other" with 2%
- ^ a b c "Another Party's Candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else/third party" with 1%
- ^ "Other" with 5%
- ^ "A third party / Independent candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Other" with 6%
- ^ a b c d e f g "Other" with 1%
- ^ a b "Some other candidate" with 1%
- ^ "Another Candidate" with 3%
- ^ a b "Someone else" with 2%
- ^ "Some other candidate" with 3%
- ^ a b c d e f "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Neither/Other" with 4%
- ^ "Another Party's Candidate" with 2%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
- ^ "Will not vote" with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with 2%
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ "Will not vote" with 6%
- ^ Independent/Third party candidate with 12%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 8%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 10%
- ^ "Another candidate" with 7%
- ^ "Undecided" & "Wouldn't vote" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 11%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ a b "Other" with 4%
- ^ No Labels candidate
- ^ a b Chase Oliver (L) with 1%
- ^ Chase Oliver (L) with >1%
- ^ Lars Mapstead with 1%
- ^ a b Lars Mapstead (L) with 0%
- ^ "Undecided" with 2%; "Someone else" with 1%
- ^ "Would not vote" with 3%
- ^ a b c Chase Oliver (L) with 0%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 4%
- ^ "Someone else / third party" with 7%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 2%
- ^ "Another third party candidate" with 6%; "Would not vote" with 1%
- ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)" with 3%; "Won't vote" with 2%; "Other (L)" & "Other (G)" with 1% each
- ^ "Other (Third Party/Write-In)", "Won't vote", & "Other (L)" with 1% each; "Other (G)" with 0%
Partisan clients
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by On Point Politics & Red Eagle Politics
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for The Times, Stanford University, Arizona State University, and Yale University
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by American Thinker
- ^ a b c d e Poll sponsored by American Greatness
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by RealClearPennsylvania
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by La Torre Live
- ^ Poll sponsored by TrendingPolitics
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Trump's campaign
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the University of Austin
- ^ Poll sponsored by Jacobin
- ^ Poll conducted for the Article III Project
- ^ Poll conducted for the Sentinel Action Fund PAC
- ^ a b c d e f Poll sponsored by Commonwealth Foundation
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Peter G. Peterson Foundation
- ^ a b c Poll commissioned by AARP
- ^ Poll sponsored by Focus on Rural America
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Napolitan Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by Spotlight PA
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by 2WAY
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Cato Institute
- ^ a b Poll conducted for the Pinpoint Policy Institute
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the American Principles Project
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by NumbersUSA
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for The Independent Center
- ^ a b Poll commissioned by Early Vote Action PAC
- ^ a b c d e f g h Poll conducted for Progress Action Fund, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll conducted for Competitiveness Coalition
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by On Point Politics
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Daily Mail
- ^ Poll sponsored by American Fuel & Petrochemical Manufacturers, a group that supports Republican candidates
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for Clean and Prosperous America PAC
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Rust Belt Rising, which supports Democratic candidates
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Democrats for the Next Generation PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by The Heartland Institute
- ^ a b c d Poll sponsored by NetChoice
- ^ a b Poll conducted for Vapor Technology Association
- ^ a b c Poll sponsored by Citizens to Save Our Republic PAC, which opposes Trump and third party candidates
- ^ a b c Poll conducted for Kennedy's campaign
- ^ Poll sponsored by The Heritage Foundation
- ^ Poll commissioned by Save My Country Action Fund
- ^ a b c d Poll conducted for the Citizen Awareness Project
- ^ Poll conducted for the John Bolton Super PAC
- ^ a b Poll sponsored by the Pennsylvania Energy Infrastructure Alliance
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