Augur (software)
 | |
Type of site | Non-profit foundation |
|---|---|
| Founded | San Francisco, California (November 2014) |
| Headquarters | Decentralized |
| Industry | Prediction markets |
| URL | http://www.augur.net |
Augur is an open-source and decentralized prediction market built on Ethereum, an emergent blockchain technology that allows for the execution of smart contracts. JavaScript is also used for a browser-based GUI that does not interact with any conventional Internet server.
An alpha version was released in June 2015. From August to October 2015, a successful round of crowdfunding raised more than US $5,000,000 in cryptocurrencies.[1] A beta version was released in March 2016. The software is set for progressive live release at the end of 2016.
Purpose and background
The project seeks to leverage the open, global, peer-to-peer and distributed ledger functionality that blockchain technology provides, as well as game theory and financial incentives, to better explore the concept of the wisdom of crowds (also known as collective intelligence) and try to get more accurate predictions about future events.[2] The specific technologies used would theoretically allow for more participation and volume compared to traditional betting platforms, therefore augmenting the quantity of markets available, and their accuracy.
On Augur, anyone, anywhere in the world can instantly create a market (or "question") on his topic of choice, with no need for centralized approval or curating, can freely participate in all markets, and will lose a minimal amount of money to fees (due to the decentralized system of market creation and resolution, the overhead costs of the platform are more widely distributed, and thus lower on average for the individual user). There is also a reduced possibility of corruption or misappropriation of funds, which had been a problem with Intrade, a well-known prediction market platform defunct in 2014.
Augur's conceptual roots can be traced back to Friedrich Hayek's The Use of Knowledge in Society, which is mentioned by several members of the project as a source of inspiration, Robin Hanson's concept of "Idea Futures", Paul Sztorc's "Truthcoin" whitepaper,[3] Vitalik Buterin's "Schellingcoin" concept,[4] and the work of Stanford University computer scientist Joseph Bonneau.
Operation
The underlying network unit utilized by Augur is known as Reputation, which will be the unit used by the platform's referees to report event outcomes (whether predictions happened or not), while Bitcoin and Ether (Ethereum's internal currency) will be used for speculating on markets. Almost all of the Reputation units were distributed during the crowdsale to approximately 4,800 participants, but they are set to be continually redistributed from bad actors to good actors.
Augur can be used as a distributed oracle system, allowing other smart contracts to propose questions to it and allowing them to discover information about the real world without having to trust a single person, AI or organization.
Use of Ethereum
After an initial desire to use Bitcoin as its blockchain system, the Augur team settled on Ethereum, explaining that it currently offers a better development platform for rapid deployment, that making use of Bitcoin as the foundation would not have offered clear security benefits and that, in any case, it intends to integrate into the Bitcoin network through sidechains as soon as that technology becomes available.[5]
One critic has expressed the opinion that the Ethereum platform is impractical for use in the calculation of outcomes because it allows for "parasite contracts" which steal the work done by contributors without compensating them properly.[6] The Augur team pointed out that this vulnerability is not unique to Ethereum: any blockchain-based system can execute such a "parasite" attack on another blockchain simply by incorporating Merkle proofs of the host blockchain into its own chain. Ethereum-based oracles are expected to be resilient to parasite attacks, as they cannot be attacked by Ethereum-based parasite contracts; Ethereum contracts do not have access to raw blockchain data.[7]
History
The development of Augur began in October 2014, with an alpha prototype being released shortly after.[8] In April 2015, Augur's first contract was uploaded to the Ethereum network.[9]
In May 2015, Augur released a two-minute animated video titled "How Augur Works" narrated by country music star Shooter Jennings. The video provides a detailed explanation of Augur utilizing simplified language to increase understanding of the technology.[10] It was watched more than 200,000 times on YouTube.
In June 2015, an alpha version was released to the general public for testing.[11]
Shortly afterwards, Augur announced that 8.8 million Reputation tokens would be distributed via a 45-day crowdsale beginning on August 17, 2015[12][13]. Augur started the crowdsale on August 17, 2015.[14][15] It was deemed necessary to support future development, appoint market referees and determine the distribution of voting power.[16] It had a very successful beginning, raising $1.3 million in cryptocurrency in the first 26 hours ($500,000 of which was raised in the first six hours) from more than 2,000 accounts.[12][17][18] Augur raised over $5.2 million before the crowdsale concluded on October 1, 2015, making it one of the top 25 highest funded crowdfunding projects of all time.[19]
Coinbase selected Augur as one of its five most exciting Bitcoin projects in their "Bitcoin Trends In The First Half Of 2015" report[20].
Augur has amassed growing media attention, including from Politico,[21] TechCrunch,[22] The Wall Street Journal,[23] International Business Times,[24] Reason.com,[25] and CoinDesk.[26] Augur was the only blockchain technology that made it to the finals in the CNBC and Singularity University's Exponential Finance XCS Challenge.[27][28]
In March 2016, Augur released a beta version.
In June 2016, the Thiel Foundation announced it had named one of the lead developers, Joey Krug, a Thiel Fellow.[29]
Academic and business affiliations
The project includes Intrade founder Ron Bernstein and George Mason University economics professor Robin Hanson (author of OvercomingBias.com) among its advisers.[30]
Coinbase CEO Brian Armstrong said Augur "could produce some incredibly useful data" and that it was "super exciting. We talk about it a lot internally."[31] Ethereum founder Vitalik Buterin as well as Bitcoin entrepreneurs Erik Voorhees and Bo Shen have also expressed support for the platform.[32][33]
References
- ^ https://sale.augur.net/
- ^ Despeignes, Peronet (July 13, 2015). "The Pressing Need for Augur".
- ^ Sztorc, Paul (August 24, 2014). "Truthcoin: Trustless, Decentralized, Censorship-Proof, Incentive-Compatible, Scalable Cryptocurrency Prediction Marketplace" (PDF).
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ Buterin, Vitalik (March 28, 2014). "SchellingCoin: A Minimal-Trust Universal Data Feed".
{{cite journal}}: Cite journal requires|journal=(help) - ^ Krug, Joey (February 13, 2015). "Why Ethereum". Augur.net.
- ^ Sztorc, Paul (2015), Oracles are the Real Smart Contracts, Truthcoin.info, retrieved 2015-10-12
- ^ "What about parasitic contracts - will other Ethereum applications be able to use Augur's reporter/referee system?".
- ^ "AugurProject Contributors". https://github.com/AugurProject/augur/graphs/contributors. Retrieved March 17, 2015.
{{cite web}}: External link in|website= - ^ Hertig, Alyssa (2015-04-21). "Augur Creates First Contract with Ethereum". CoinTelegraph.com.
- ^ Sakich, Tony (May 20, 2015). "How Augur Works Video". Augur.net.
- ^ Krug, Joey (June 16, 2015). "The Augur Alpha is Now Available To Download!". Augur.net.
- ^ a b "Augur to issue 11 million REP tokens starting 17 August". Retrieved 2015-08-13.
- ^ "The Augur Crowdsale". The Augur Crowdsale. Retrieved 2015-08-13.
- ^ "The Augur Crowdsale". The Augur Crowdsale. Retrieved 2015-08-28.
- ^ "Augur to issue 11 million REP tokens starting 17 August". Retrieved 2015-08-28.
- ^ "Why A Crowdsale Is Necessary For Augur To Work & Some Updates". Why A Crowdsale Is Necessary For Augur To Work & Some Updates. Retrieved 2015-08-28.
- ^ "Ethereum blockchain explorer".
- ^ "Blockchain info (bitcoin blockchain explorer)".
- ^ "Augur - Fund the Future". sale.augur.net. Retrieved 2015-08-28.
- ^ "Bitcoin Trends In The First Half Of 2015". The Coinbase Blog. Retrieved 2015-07-22.
- ^ "Mega-banks back Burr — Next-gen prediction market to test limits in D.C. — Get ready for more Greek drama — CFPB, New York DFS sue pension-advance lender (Archive: 8/21/15)". Retrieved 2015-08-21.
- ^ "Vapor No More: Ethereum Has Launched". Retrieved 2015-08-01.
- ^ "BitBeat: Ethereum Opens Its 'Frontier' for Business". Retrieved 2015-07-31.
- ^ "Augur to issue 11 million REP tokens starting 17 August". Retrieved 2015-08-03.
- ^ "Augur May Become the Greatest Gambling Platform in History. Is There Anything the Government Can Do to Stop It?". 2015-08-11. Retrieved 2016-06-25.
- ^ "Augur Bets on Bright Future for Blockchain Prediction Markets". Retrieved 2015-03-01..
- ^ "Decentralized Prediction Market Augur Reaches XCS Finals in 'Breakthrough' Category". Retrieved 2015-06-17.
- ^ "Blockchain Prediction Market Augur Elected as a 'Breakthrough' Finalist at Exponential Finance 2015 - Bitcoin Magazine". Retrieved 2015-06-17.
- ^ http://finance.yahoo.com/news/thiel-foundation-announces-2016-thiel-170000032.html
- ^ Rizzo, Pete (March 1, 2015). "Augur Bets on Bright Future for Blockchain Prediction Markets". Coindesk.com.
- ^ "@brian_armstrong augur". twitter.com. Retrieved 10 August 2015.
- ^ "Tony Swish". Twitter. Retrieved 10 August 2015.
- ^ "Why A Crowdsale Is Necessary For Augur To Work & Some Updates". Why A Crowdsale Is Necessary For Augur To Work & Some Updates. Retrieved 2015-08-13.