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2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

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Republican presidential primaries, 2012
← 2008 January 3, 2012, to present 2016 →
 
Candidate Newt Gingrich Mitt Romney
Party Republican Republican
Home state Georgia Massachusetts
Delegate count 28[1] 32[1]
States carried 1 1
Popular vote 282,907 294,813
Percentage 29.12% 30.35%
 
Candidate Ron Paul Rick Santorum
Party Republican Republican
Home state Texas Pennsylvania
Delegate count 10[1] 8[1]
States carried 0 1
Popular vote 160,944 155,357
Percentage 16.57% 15.99%
Results of the 2012 Republican Party primaries and caucuses
Green denotes a state won by Rick Santorum.
Purple denotes a state won by Newt Gingrich.
Orange denotes a state won by Mitt Romney.
Gold denotes a state won by Ron Paul.
Grey denotes a state that has not yet started/completed voting.
Previous Republican nominee before election

John McCain

 Republican nominee

TBD

2012 U.S. presidential election
Democratic Party
Republican Party
Minor parties
Related races
← 2008 2012 2016 →

The 2012 Republican presidential primaries are the selection processes in which voters of the Republican Party will choose their nominee for President of the United States in the 2012 presidential election. There are 2,286 delegates.[2] A candidate must accumulate 1,144 delegate votes to win.[3]

The primary contest began with a fairly wide field, and is the first presidential primary influenced by the Tea Party movement. This was the first presidential primary affected by a Supreme Court ruling that allowed unlimited fundraising for candidates through super PACs. Two candidates who ran in 2008, Congressman Ron Paul of Texas and former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney, also ran in 2012.

Romney took an early lead in polls with the support of much of the Republican establishment.[4] However, his lead over the Republican field has been precarious, due to the entry of new candidates who drew considerable media attention between April and August 2011. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann of Minnesota received significant support in polls after winning the Ames Straw Poll, but she lost some of her momentum when Texas Governor Rick Perry was propelled by significant national Republican support to join the race in August 2011; he performed strongly in polls, immediately becoming a serious contender.[5][6]

Following a series of poor performances in debates, Perry lost his momentum to Herman Cain. Cain's viability as a candidate was seriously jeopardized after allegations of a history of sexual harassment surfaced in the media, with his campaign being suspended on December 3, 2011 despite his unyielding denials of any misconduct. Former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Virginia, who stressed the need to beat incumbent President Barack Obama and to avoid intra-party disputes, began making a comeback in November 2011, both in polls and fundraising.[7] Gingrich's popularity began to wane in mid-December under focused attacks by Mitt Romney[8] and Ron Paul.[9]

Former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania enjoyed a late surge in support immediately prior to the January 3, 2012, Iowa caucuses, the first contest of the primary season, and narrowly prevailed over Mitt Romney there. After a disappointing sixth place finish in Iowa, Bachmann exited the race. Romney won the New Hampshire primary by a significant margin on January 10, 2012, as was expected. Former Utah Governor Jon Huntsman, Jr. failed to get significant national support during the race and focused nearly all of his efforts on New Hampshire; however, he dropped out of the race after finishing third there. Perry, after finishing fifth in Iowa and with 1% in New Hampshire, dropped out two days before the South Carolina primary and endorsed Gingrich. Romney was expected by many to carry on that surge of momentum going into South Carolina to win, with some expecting him to virtually lock up the nomination in South Carolina. However, after two debates in South Carolina on the week of the primary, yielding poor Romney performances and strong Gingrich performances, on January 21, 2012, Newt Gingrich won the South Carolina primary.

As of January 24, 2012, the only remaining national candidates for the Republican nomination were Newt Gingrich, Ron Paul, Mitt Romney, and Rick Santorum.

Background

The U.S. economy suffered a recession from 2007 to 2009, median incomes fell for Americans, and unemployment, while falling from a high of 9.9% in 2008,[10] has remained above 8% so far through Obama's term in office.[11] Polling showed voters who approved of his "handling of the economy" fell from 60% at the start of his term to the mid-30s by 2011.[12] Since 2008, the Republican Party has experienced big gains in white voters, including younger and poorer Whites who trended Democratic.[13][14][15] The results of the 2010 census also reduced the influence of traditionally blue states in the electoral college.

Polling found that Americans were increasingly frustrated with the U.S. government as a whole, and the Republican Party shared in those high disapproval ratings.[16] In particular, although the majority of Americans felt Obama did not have a successful plan to bring jobs, they trusted Congress even less to create them.[17][18] The House of Representatives, now with a substantial Republican majority since January 2011, refused to raise taxes and was engaged in a lengthy dispute over the debt ceiling. House Speaker John Boehner led negotiations with President Obama over raising the debt ceiling. The Tea Party movement, which was active in political town hall meetings, was opposed to raising the ceiling.[19] LGBT issues have been one of the major discussion topics among candidates. Amid intense debates, all Republican candidates have opposed same-sex marriage, expressing support for "traditional marriage" between a man and a woman. Only Jon Huntsman has supported civil unions.[20][21] Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum and Rick Perry have particularly spoken out strongly against gay marriage.[22] Santorum has opposed gay adoption, Gingrich and Herman Cain have described being gay as "a choice", and Bachmann has described gays as having a "sexual dysfunction".[23][24][25][26]

Concerns about the security and support of Israel have also been apparent in the lead-up to the 2012 elections, affecting Jewish support for both Obama and the Republican Party. Beginning in 2010, Obama's insistence that Israel stop construction of new settlements in the West Bank and in East Jerusalem,[27] and endorsement of the 1967 borders with land swaps as the basis for negotiations, weakened his support in the Jewish community.[28][29] The New York Times reported that Obama remained a clear favorite among Jewish fund-raisers and held a majority of Jewish voters in swing states,[30] but Ari Fleischer predicted that even a small shift in the Jewish community could cost Obama the states of Ohio and Florida.[31] The Obama administration attempted to postpone a September UN vote on recognizing statehood for Palestine, albeit to no avail.[32][33] In 2011, a record one-fifth of the U.S. Congress, 81 congressmen, visited Israel for firsthand education on Israeli foreign policy, sponsored by the American Israel Education Foundation.[34][35] Many of the potential Republican contenders—Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee,[36] Sarah Palin,[37] Haley Barbour, Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain—visited Israel in 2011.[38][39][40] RealClearPolitics suggested that a visit to Israel was a "near requisite" for running for President in the Republican Party as these visits influenced evangelical voters and promoted awareness of serious security issues in the region.[41] Israel's security situation was exacerbated during the Arab Spring when significant violence arose in Egypt and Syria, and Iran's nuclear capacities were increasing.[42][43][44] Republican candidates took increasingly hardline stances on Israeli-Palestinian issues during the campaign; Newt Gingrich described the Palestinians as an "invented people" who "had the chance to go many places" and should have left Palestine. He also said there was no real difference between the Palestinian Authority and Hamas, described both as terrorists who wanted to destroy Israel, and said the peace process and the two-state solution were a "war against Israel". This stance marks a major departure from the policies of all previous administrations, including those of Obama and Bush.[45]

A record number of advocacy group pledges were signed by Republican candidates this election cycle. The pledges candidates promised included social issues and fiscal policy.[46][47] Every major Republican candidate promised to repeal the Patient Protection and Affordable Care Act (PPACA) if elected president in 2012, and many said it would be a top priority.[48][49][50][51][52][53][54][55][56] Rick Santorum was an enthusiastic supporter of pledges, and was called a "Super Pledger" for his participation and defense of the practice.[57] Jon Huntsman declined to sign any pledges, making him the only candidate in the 2012 cycle without one.[58] The Susan B. Anthony List released a pro-life pledge signed by several candidates but not Romney;[59] pledges against same-sex marriage from the National Organization for Marriage and the Family Leader were signed by several to affirm that they would uphold the Defense of Marriage Act and prevent federal recognition of state marriages.[60] The Family Leader's pledge was highly controversial for its statements about Muslims, slavery and pornography.[61] Rick Santorum and Michele Bachmann signed the pledge, which also included a clause for the candidate to pledge to stay faithful to his or her spouse.[57][62][63] Bachmann denied her pledge included the slavery language, despite insistence by the Family Leader that she received the full document.[64][65][66] Santorum said he was "taken aback initially" when reading the document, but signed.[67][68] Candidates also signed promises to push for a balanced budget amendment (the pledge was released by the group Let Freedom Ring), to reduce the national debt (Strong America Now[dead link‍]), and to prevent any tax increases (Americans for Tax Reform).

Calendar

Main article: United States presidential election, 2012 timeline
See also: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
Republican primaries and caucuses calendar 2012

In April 2008, the Standing Committee on Rules of the Republican National Committee recommended the adoption of the "Ohio Plan", that would, starting in 2012, divide the primary states into three tiers: early states, small states, and large states. It would allow the early states to retain their status and tradition of being states that vote first. By the end of February 2012, nineteen small states comprising fifty electoral votes would be allowed to vote. In March, the last states, the largest ones, would then have their primaries.[69]

The 2008 Republican National Convention did not approve the Ohio Plan. Instead, the Rules of the Republican Party adopted by the Convention provided that the timing of binding delegate selection contests would generally be subject to the same rules as the 2008 delegate selection contests.[70]

On August 6, 2010, the Republican National Committee (RNC) adopted new rules for the timing of elections on August 6, 2010, with 103 votes in favor out of 144.[71] Under this plan, elections for delegates to the national convention were to be divided into three periods:[72]

  • February 2012: Contests of traditional early states Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina,
  • March 2012: Contests that proportionally allocate delegates,
  • April 2012, and onward: All other contests including winner-take-all elections.

The only early state that adhered to the new rules was Nevada. Florida scheduled its contest early in violation of the rules, pressuring other states to push back their contests. Being in violation of RNC rules, New Hampshire, South Carolina, Florida, Arizona and Michigan were penalized with a loss of half of their delegates, including their RNC delegates. New Hampshire was penalized from 23 delegates to 12, South Carolina from 50 to 25, Florida from 99 to 50, Arizona from 58 to 29 and Michigan from 59 to 30.
Iowa, Maine, Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri also violated the rules by scheduling early contests, but since these contests do not bind any national delegates they were not penalized.[73]

Primary schedule

Template:Multicol January 3

January 10

January 21

January 31

February 4

February 4–11

February 7

February 28

March 3

Template:Multicol-break March 6 (Super Tuesday)

March 6-10

March 10

March 13

March 17

Template:Multicol-break March 18

March 20

March 24

April 3

April 24

May 8

Template:Multicol-break May 15

May 22

June 5

June 14-16

June 26

July 14

  • Nebraska (binding) caucus (Cf May 15)

Date to be determined

  • Guam
  • Northern Mariana Islands

Template:Multicol-end

Candidates

Main article: Republican Party presidential candidates, 2012

Major contenders

Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries
Candidates

Newt
Gingrich

Mitt
Romney

Ron
Paul

Rick
Santorum

Jon
Huntsman

Rick
Perry

Michele
Bachmann
Home state Georgia Massachusetts Texas Pennsylvania Utah Texas Minnesota
Projected delegates 28 32 10 8 0 0 0
Total votes 282,907
(29.1%) 		294,813
(30.4%) 		160,944
(16.6%) 		155,357
(16.0%) 		43,864
(4.5%) 		16,812
(1.7%) 		6,855
(0.7%)
States won South Carolina New Hampshire – Iowa – – –
States - 2nd place – South Carolina, Iowa New Hampshire – – – –
States - 3rd place – – Iowa South Carolina New Hampshire – –
Withdrawal date – – – – January 16, 2012 January 19, 2012 January 4, 2012

Withdrew before primary elections

2012 election cycle

"Invisible primary"

The race for the Republican primaries began slowly in 2011. Gallup polls found that historically the Republican Party had a clear front-runner by March. In surveys, Republicans said they wanted to see Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Sarah Palin and Newt Gingrich run.[74]

In February and March 2011, the Republican candidates, as well as the party as a whole, were involved in a discussion on radical and political Islam. The Republican Party courted Muslim voters during Bush's 2000 campaign but had lost nearly the entire demographic by 2008.[75] In the 2012 cycle, the supposed threat of Sharia law in the United States became a political issue.[76] Speculated candidate Mike Huckabee made statements criticizing Islam.[77] Rick Santorum was noted as saying Sharia law was "evil". He also said that American history books were corrupted, and that the Crusades were not an act of aggression by the Christians.[78]

When Herman Cain was asked if he would appoint a Muslim to his Cabinet as President, he said, "I will not. And here's why. There is this creeping attempt, this attempt, to gradually ease Sharia law and the Muslim faith into our government. It does not belong in our government. This is what happened to Europe. And little by little, to try to be politically correct, they made this little change. They made this little change. And now they've got a social problem that they don't know what to do with hardly."[79] The phrase "creeping Sharia" became a political catchphrase. By May, Sharia law was a political "litmus test" for the Republican candidates.[80]

Donald Trump dominated headlines as a possible candidate in April 2011, discussing foreign policy and the controversial "birther" issue.[81]

Republican enthusiasm for the field of candidates was weak in April, and polling found few Americans could even name the Republican contenders.[82][83] Considerable media attention was given in April 2011 to Donald Trump, who considered running for the nomination and repeatedly criticized Obama, saying his policies were failing the U.S. economy. Trump said the United States was suffering in the global economy because of poor trade deals, saying "I think the biggest threat is that our jobs are being stolen by other countries. We’re not going to have any jobs here pretty soon." He pointed to the Chinese economy in particular and proposed a 25% tariff on Chinese imports to solve the trade discrepancy between the U.S. and China.[84] Trump seized the issue of conspiracy theories about whether Barack Obama was an American citizen and was vocal in insisting that Obama show his "real" birth certificate. On April 28, Obama released his long form birth certificate.[85] Trump never officially declared or filed an FEC report, and made it clear on May 15 that he would not be running for the GOP nomination.[86]

Governors Mitch Daniels, Chris Christie and Haley Barbour all decided not to run in May, citing family concerns.[87][87][88] In May, Newt Gingrich joined the race, but his credibility suffered a setback one week later, following his criticism of the Ryan Plan, a popular budget among Republicans.[89] One month later, his entire senior staff quit en-masse, citing personal difficulties with Gingrich, known to be highly-independent and un-choreographed.[90] In the aftermath, polls indicated Gingrich had lost ground with primary voters[91] and he struggled in polling until September 2011.[92][93]

With few declared candidates, sponsoring news organizations postponed many of the debates in 2011.[94][95] In the first debate, held on Fox News, candidates were asked for their opinion on the U.S. debt crisis. Host Bret Baier asked candidates if they would agree to raise taxes by $1 for each new $10 in budget cuts; each candidate refused, rejecting raising taxes.[96][97][98] Ron Paul stood out from other candidates, arguing for ending the war on drugs to great applause.[99][100][101] At the end of the debate, in which most of the leading candidates did not participate, a focus group assembled for Fox News declared Herman Cain the winner.[102][103] Viewers said he articulated clearly and directly on conservative principles, and outshined Tim Pawlenty, who at the time was regarded as the only "top-tier candidate" in the debate.[104][105][106][107][108] Cain succeeded in gaining some momentum, and his supporters were said to have the most enthusiasm for their candidate.[109][110][111][112]

Later campaigns

Two candidates from the 2008 presidential primaries, Mitt Romney and Ron Paul, ran again in the 2012 primary campaign. Mitt Romney was an early frontrunner, and he maintained a careful, strategic campaign that centered on being an establishment candidate. Time magazine predicted his approach would fail, saying the Republican Party had changed from "country-club aristocracy" to "pitchfork populism" in 2011.[113] Republicans questioned Romney's commitment to conservative ideals, and often accused him of being a flip-flopper for his changing positions on issues such as state-mandated health care, abortion, climate change, and same sex marriage.[114][115] Romney maintained a weak lead of 20% nationally throughout 2011, raising doubt that he was a "true frontrunner". He enjoyed a significant money advantage and had the highest name recognition in the field, and many voters found him to be the most "electable" in the general election.[116]

Ron Paul, who ran for president in 1988 and 2008, received warmer support than in previous years. He was a strong fundraiser,[117] raising millions over the Internet through "money bombs",[118][119][120] one-day fundraising events launched by his grassroot supporters.[121][122] His libertarian positions on the IRS, the Federal Reserve, and non-interventionist foreign policy were taken by other candidates, unlike in 2008.[123] He finished a close second in the Iowa Ames Straw Poll and first in the California straw poll,[124] demonstrating that he was a mainstream candidate.[125] A study found that Paul was not widely-covered by news sources in 2011, although he easily shadowed Gary Johnson from much public recognition.[126]

Michele Bachmann speaks at a rally. She was propelled in the race with support from the Tea Party movement.

Michele Bachmann, a Tea Party favorite, started her campaign for president in June 2011, and soon began to poll near front-runner Mitt Romney.[127] She received national publicity and was featured at length in The New Yorker and Newsweek.[128] In Iowa, she engaged in a bitter rivalry with Tim Pawlenty, as she overtook his constituency in evangelical Christian voters. When, on August 14, she won the Ames Straw Poll by a close margin over Ron Paul, she effectively ended Pawlenty's viability as a candidate and he withdrew from the race the next day.[129] Pawlenty had invested heavily in Iowa and needed a strong bump in the polls to improve his poor fundraising.[130] Bachmann's public profile grew during the race, and Forbes rated her the 22nd most powerful woman in the world in August 2011.[131] The Forbes list denoted Bachmann as influential in politics, while ranking Sarah Palin at 34th most powerful for her place as a celebrity.[132] However, Bachmann lost momentum and fell back into single digits.

Over the summer of 2011, several Republican groups began a nationwide campaign to draft Texas governor Rick Perry to compete for the nomination. Perry began an aggressive networking and fundraising strategy to launch a viable campaign. He depended largely on evangelical Christians as his base, and held a prayer meeting with supporters one week before announcing his campaign. The prayer was held to save "a nation in crisis".[133] His entry on August 14, 2011, garnered tremendous publicity and made him an instant top-tier candidate. He polled as the Republican frontrunner within days of his entrance into the race, posing a serious threat to other Christian conservatives, such as Michele Bachmann.[134][135]

Rick Perry speaking to voters in Iowa

Perry's campaign focused on themes of economic recovery. Touting his record as governor of Texas, he pointed to the 1 million jobs that were created during his 10-year tenure. The Associated Press found Perry to be a confident, personable campaigner.[136] On Perry's first day of campaigning, he stated, "I respect all the other candidates in the field but there is no one that can stand toe-to-toe with us."[137] Even his critics consistently complimented his good-spirited personality and tireless campaigning.[138] Criticism of Perry began almost the moment he entered the race. His connection to Texan cowboy culture and his Southern drawl sounded similar to George W. Bush, for whom he had served as lieutenant governor. Critics drew many parallels between him and the former president. Perry drew wide criticism when he said that it would be "almost treacherous – or treasonous in my opinion" for the Federal Reserve to be "printing money to play politics".[139][140][141] Perry's campaign was scrutinized for conservative ideas in his book, Fed Up. Perry back-tracked from views he had on repealing the income tax and his criticism of Medicare.[142][143][144] Perry stood firm by his statements on Social Security, calling it an "illegal Ponzi scheme" during his campaign.[145] His record on tort reform in Texas also drew criticism from trial lawyers, who feared that a Perry administration would lead to wide tort-focused legislation.[146] Perry's lackluster college grades at Texas A&M raised fears that he was not an intellectual leader.[147] On the campaign trail, he told a boy that evolution by natural selection was "a theory with holes in it" and suggested that the data on global warming was manipulated. His disagreement with scientific consensus turned off socially moderate Republicans and prompted a search for fresh, more-centrist candidates.[148]

Dissatisfaction with the Republican field was highest amongst the college-educated, who hoped Mitch Daniels or Paul Ryan would enter the race.[148] By the end of the summer, the field of candidates seemed to be settled,[19] as Chris Christie, Paul Ryan and Jeb Bush all said no to activists who asked them to run.[149][150][151] George Pataki, a moderate former governor, decided against running, and time was running out for Rudy Giuliani[152] and Sarah Palin, who were losing speculation as candidates.[153][154] Sarah Palin had received heavy speculation beginning in 2009, when she resigned as governor of Alaska.[155] Throughout 2010 and 2011, she remained politically active, endorsing candidates in the midterm elections,[156] and launching a "One Nation" bus tour across the United States.[157] Palin further increased speculation in May 2011 when she purchased a house in Arizona that many saw as a possible campaign headquarters.[158] Enthusiasm for her potential run dropped as time went on, and by September 2011, a majority of Republicans and independents preferred that she would not run.[159][160] On October 5, Palin officially removed her name from consideration for the nomination.[161] In September, large donors encouraged Chris Christie to reconsider the presidential race, owing to their dissatisfaction with Perry and Romney.[162][163] On October 4, 2011, Christie announced definitively that he would not run, saying "now is not my time".[164]

Debate season

File:Republican presidential debate in Iowa.jpg
Candidates at a 2012 Republican presidential debate in August 2011.
Main article: Republican Party presidential debates, 2012

Beginning in September 2011, the Republicans held a frequent pace of televised debates—5 debates in 6 weeks.[165] The ratings for the debates was far higher than those of the 2008 primaries, and the impact of the debates on the candidates' success was significant.[166] Perry and Romney, the frontrunners, sparred with each other and received criticism from other candidates.[167] Huntsman distanced himself from the Republican Party as a whole, saying it was becoming the "anti-science party", and would be in a losing position for the general election if it chose Perry.[168][169][170][171]

Huntsman debated Romney's positions on China, saying Romney could incite a trade war for calling China a "currency manipulator".[172] Huntsman argued that he was more electable in the general election than all of his opponents, and predicted that the Perry–Romney rivalry would fizzle into obscurity; he drew parallels to Rudy Giuliani and Fred Thompson from the 2008 election.[173][174][175]

Bachmann, who had been losing ground to Perry, attacked his actions as governor of Texas to vaccinate teenage girls against HPV.[176] Bachmann said Perry was influenced by the Merck pharmaceutical company, and said the vaccination trampled on the girls' rights, who she said "didn't have a choice". Bachmann told the media that a voter came to her and claimed her child developed mental retardation from the vaccine.[177] After scientists disputed her claim as baseless, she refused to retract the statement, and insisted the vaccine had dangerous side effects.[178][179][180] According to The Weekly Standard, Bachmann's scientific illiteracy on the HPV scare created an implosion for her campaign, which lost significant support.[181][182]

Perry's performance at the debates was widely panned, as political analysts noticed him in a pattern of becoming lethargic and incoherent as time wore on, and found some of his statements "cringeworthy" to conservatives.[183][184][185][186] In one debate, he froze when stating the three government agencies he wanted to eliminate, forgetting the third.[187] As a result,[188][189] he lost supporters to Herman Cain.[190][191][192] Cain insisted that his momentum was not a rebuke of Perry.[193]

Herman Cain gained frontrunner status in October 2011. He ended his campaign December 3, 2011, after media reports of alleged sexual misconduct surfaced.

During the debates, Herman Cain pushed his "9-9-9" economic plan and a Chilean-inspired model for reforming Social Security, receiving lively applause.[194] Cain rose above Mitt Romney in several polls and became a frontrunner with strong fundraising. His campaign was dogged by a series of surfacing sexual harassment allegations, which detracted from Cain's campaigning.[195][195] Cain stated that the accusations were politically[196] and racially motivated,[197] and said he could not remember if he knew one of the accusers or not.[198] Despite the allegations, Cain continued to lead in polls[199] but experienced a sharp drop in female support.[200]

Cain unequivocally denied all sexual misconduct charges on national television. Using vocal tone technology available to law enforcement, a private investigator determined that Cain was telling the truth about one accuser.[201] The Associated Press revealed that another accuser had a history of making workplace allegations for legal settlements,[202] and no others had come forward to publicly corroborate their stories.[203][204] A fourth woman told the press that she had a 13-year extramarital affair with Cain, and that the two had been having a sexual relationship up until the start of his presidential campaign.[205] Cain denied that he had had an affair with the fourth woman, but her story was particularly damaging because Cain's wife did not know that he was financially supporting the woman.[206][207][208] On December 3, 2011, Cain suspended his campaign.[209][210]

Gingrich consistently earned favorable reviews from his debate performances,[211] leading to an uptick in volunteers and fundraising.[212][213][214][215][216] Gingrich engaged in a pattern of challenging debate moderators for the wording and time limits of their questions,[217] and invoked Reagan's Commandment, vowing to restrain from negative campaigning.[218][219] Gingrich repeatedly complimented his rivals and focused on unity, saying "We only have one opponent. That’s Barack Obama."[220][221] By December 2011, Gingrich became frontrunner and was attacked by the media and his rivals for his past work with Freddie Mac.[221] Romney argued that Gingrich should return money he was paid for work for Freddie Mac, a government-sponsored enterprise that was unpopular for its role in the United States housing bubble. Gingrich defended his work with Freddie Mac, saying that he supported efforts to increase home ownership and denied doing any lobbying. Gingrich fired back at Romney, who called him a career politician, telling him the "only reason you didn't become a career politician is you lost to Teddy Kennedy".[222][223]

Romney's attacks intensified on Gingrich, as he said he was too "zany" and "unreliable" in his personal temperament to be President.[222] Gingrich pointed out that Romney had made money from "bankrupting companies and laying off employees", a reference to Romney's business practices as head of Bain Capital.[224] A New York Times article examined Romney's business career and found that Bain Capital left several companies bankrupted and weakened after its management consulting. The story also surfaced a pattern of slashing costs and employees to maximize profitability, creating a net loss of jobs.[225] Reporters investigated Mitt Romney's past and found that before departing as governor he had spent nearly $100,000 of taxpayer money to destroy his computer records.[226] A New York Times story featured Gingrich's record on health care, finding that he supported bailout monies that funded electronic health records, and often sided with Democrats such as Tom Daschle and Hillary Clinton on Medicare's expansion for prescription drug benefits.[227]

In the November 12 debate, Romney and Gingrich said that they would authorize military strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities if other means of stopping Iran's attempt to develop nuclear weapons failed.[228]

After being excluded from almost all of the debates, former New Mexico governor Gary Johnson announced on December 28, 2011 that he would leave the Republican race and seek the nomination of the Libertarian Party.

Early states

Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

From January 3 to March 5, the early series of primaries and caucuses take place. The rules are different for many of the states, as delegate selection is proportionate rather than winner take all as it has been in earlier cycles. On March 6, a dozen states hold their primaries at the same time, and this event has long been called Super Tuesday.

Iowa

Gingrich and his wife at a campaign event. Gingrich lost his lead in Iowa quickly before the caucus, attributed to super PAC-funded negative ads.[229][230][231]
Main article: Iowa Republican caucuses, 2012

In the few weeks before the Iowa caucus, Gingrich's lead quickly began to evaporate. Iowans were bombarded with over $4.4million in negative advertising on Gingrich from super PACs sympathetic to Mitt Romney and others.[232][233][234][235] Romney refused to denounce the attacks and claimed that it was illegal for him to repudiate their TV ads, which was an exaggeration; Politico found that Romney personally coordinated a fundraiser with the super PAC.[235] Gingrich attempted to defend his public image in Iowa through meeting with voters, and criticized his rivals for their inaction in speaking up on the super PACs.[236] He acknowledged that his positive campaign had been a weakness, and had allowed his rivals to gain the upper hand through negative attacks.[237] Ron Paul bought TV ads attacking Gingrich for his apparent flip-flops on abortion,[238] a hot button issue for evangelical Christians.[239] Ron Paul enjoyed a significant upswing in Iowa, and was noted for a well-organized and well-funded campaign infrastructure.[240] In the last few days before the caucus, Rick Santorum's campaign experienced more media attention and his popularity surged to caucus day. On the night of the caucuses, Romney was reported the winner of Iowa by only eight votes over Santorum,[241] but after the results were certified, despite losing the results from 8 districts, Santorum was given the win, beating Romney by 34 votes.[242] The results of the Iowa caucuses are nonbinding and all delegates from the state are free to vote for the candidate of their choice in the Convention.[243] Following the caucus, Michelle Bachmann dropped out. Rick Perry briefly reassessed his campaign, but decided to continue.[244]

New Hampshire

Jon Huntsman invested heavily in New Hampshire. After finishing third, he withdrew from the race.
Main article: New Hampshire Republican primary, 2012

Mitt Romney easily won the primary with 39% of the vote, followed by Ron Paul and Jon Huntsman. Romney's win in New Hampshire was seen as a given; he had persistently showed popularity in that state, but rivals were intensely fighting for a second-place finish there.[245] Romney won seven of the state's delegates to the Republican National Convention, while Ron Paul won three and Jon Huntsman two.[246] Huntsman, a moderate, had staked his candidacy on New Hampshire and invested heavily in at least a strong second place showing there. Huntsman polled at 1-2% nationally and his 17% finish in New Hampshire, after 150 campaign events, $2 million in self-financing, and $2.5 million from his father,[247][248] was seen as lackluster.[249][250] Campaigns & Elections noted that his singular focus on New Hampshire made it impossible for him to spin around his third place finish as anything but a failure.[251]

South Carolina

Main article: South Carolina Republican primary, 2012

Romney appeared to be the eventual Republican nominee in national polls, and analysts predicted that the race for the Republican nomination would soon be over if Romney prevailed in South Carolina; the state has reliably voted for the winner of the Republican nomination since 1980.[252] However, South Carolina, with its higher percentages of veterans, evangelicals and social conservatives, was seen as an unlikely territory for Romney, who was generally considered a moderate. Gingrich, who was originally from neighboring Georgia, waged an aggressive and successful campaign in South Carolina and underscored its importance, saying bluntly, "If I don't win the primary Saturday, we will probably nominate a moderate. And the odds are fairly high he will lose to Obama."[253][254] Gingrich urged Santorum and Perry to drop out and support him in the days before the primary, arguing that their support could coalesce the "anti-Romney" vote and stop him from a victory.[255] Two days before the vote, Rick Perry dropped his bid and endorsed Newt Gingrich, who went on to win the primary.

Gingrich gained momentum in South Carolina after two strong debate performances, and detractors began to increase their attacks on him, including criticism of his past divorces.[256] Two days before the primary, ABC News aired an interview with his former wife criticizing Gingrich, and fraudulent emails circulating rumors that Gingrich had coerced his former wife into having an abortion were sent in the days before the election.[257] Gingrich was aided by a $5 million donation from Sheldon Adelson, which helped fund TV ads critical of Romney's corporate success at Bain Capital.[258][259][260] Romney's deflection of criticism towards his business practices at Bain Capital as well as his reluctance to reveal his income tax returns raised suspicions that he was hiding something. His supporters and detractors urged him to reveal his tax returns in January,[261] but Romney insisted on doing so later in April, when he would likely have already won the nomination.[262][263] Romney attempted to deflect the issue and invoked Gingrich to release his ethics charges as Speaker, despite the fact that Gingrich's congressional record has been public for over 15 years.[264][265][266] Polls taken as recent as the day before the election showed Gingrich with a commanding lead, leading Romney by double digits.[267] On January 21, 2012, Gingrich scored an "easy victory" in the South Carolina primary with over 40% of the vote; Romney finished second with 28%, Santorum finished in third with 17%, and Paul was fourth with 13%.[268] For the first time since 1980, three different Republican candidates captured Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.[269]

Florida

Main article: Florida Republican primary, 2012

Florida would have been represented by 99 delegates, but the Florida Republican Party set the date of the primary for January 31, violating the guidelines of the Republican National Committee (RNC), so the Florida delegation to the National Convention has been reduced to 50 delegates; none of them are RNC (or super) delegates. Delegates will be selected by the State Executive Board and awarded to the winner of the primary on a winner-take-all basis. The delegates are bound for three ballots at the National Convention.

Nevada

Main article: Nevada Republican caucuses, 2012

Nevada was originally going to hold their caucuses on February 18, but after Florida moved their primary into January, Nevada contemplated following suit. As a compromise, Nevada moved it to February 4, and the RNC promised that the Nevada delegates would be seated on the National Convention floor "in the best positions" and they would have prime hotel space.[270]

Maine

Main article: Maine Republican caucuses, 2012

Maine will hold their non-binding caucuses February 4-11 for 24 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[271]

Colorado, Minnesota, and Missouri

Main article: Colorado Republican caucuses, 2012
Main article: Minnesota Republican caucuses, 2012
Main article: Missouri Republican primary, 2012
Colorado will hold their non-binding caucuses February 7 for 36 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.
Minnesota will hold their non-binding caucuses February 7 for 40 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.
Missouri will hold their non-binding primary February 7 for 52 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[272]

Arizona and Michigan

Main article: Arizona Republican primary, 2012
Main article: Michigan Republican primary, 2012
Arizona will hold their closed primary February 28 for 29 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.
Michigan will hold their closed primary February 28 for 30 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[273]

Washington

Main article: Washington Republican caucuses, 2012

Washington will hold their non-binding caucuses March 3 for 43 delegates, which includes three party leaders and 10 at-large delegates.[274]

Super Tuesday

Main article: Super Tuesday
Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

"Super Tuesday" refers to the event when the greatest number of states hold primary elections on the same date. Traditionally, Iowa and New Hampshire vote first. In the 2008 election cycle, 24 states voted on March 5, but with South Carolina, Florida, and Nevada voting earlier and other states distinguishing themselves, only 10 states will vote on Super Tuesday, March 6, 2012: Alaska (27), Georgia (76), Idaho (32), Massachusetts (41), North Dakota (28), Ohio (66), Oklahoma (43), Tennessee (58), Vermont (17), and Virginia (49). [275]

Of the 2,286 total Republican delegates, 1,144 are needed to win nomination at the Republican nominating convention.[276]

Later states

Main article: Results of the 2012 Republican Party presidential primaries

From March 6 to July 14, a later series of primaries and caucuses will be held. The rules differ from state to state—delegate selection can be proportionate rather than winner take all, and the votes can be binding or non-binding on the representative delegates. In August, the Republican nominating convention will be held in Florida. [277]

Wyoming

Main article: Wyoming Republican caucuses, 2012

Wyoming will be the first state to vote after Super Tuesday. They will hold binding caucuses March 6-10. [278][279]

Convention

The 2012 Republican National Convention is scheduled to take place the week of August 27, 2012,[280] in Tampa, Florida,[281] one week before the Democratic National Convention in Charlotte, North Carolina.[282]

See also

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