2020 United States presidential election in Michigan: Difference between revisions
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|Jun 12-14, 2020 |
|Jun 12-14, 2020 |
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Revision as of 12:09, 17 June 2020
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Elections in Michigan |
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The 2020 United States presidential election in Michigan is scheduled to take place on Tuesday, November 3, 2020, as part of the 2020 United States presidential election in which all 50 states plus the District of Columbia will participate.[1] Michigan voters will choose electors to represent them in the Electoral College via a popular vote. The state of Michigan has 16 electoral votes in the Electoral College.[2]
Michigan is expected to be tightly contested in 2020, as it was the closest state by margin in the 2016 election, where President Trump became the first Republican to carry Michigan’s electoral votes since 1988, when George H. W. Bush won in a national landslide against Michael Dukakis.
Primary elections
The primary elections were on March 10, 2020.
Republican primary
Incumbent United States President Donald Trump was challenged by three candidates: former governor Mark Sanford of South Carolina, former congressman Joe Walsh of Illinois, and former governor Bill Weld of Massachusetts. Sanford and Walsh both withdrew prior to the primary. Michigan is the only primary state where Sanford's name remained on the ballot.[3]
Candidate | Votes | % | Estimated delegates |
---|---|---|---|
Donald Trump (incumbent) | 640,552 | 93.7% | 73 |
Uncommitted | 32,743 | 4.8% | 0 |
Bill Weld | 6,099 | 0.9% | 0 |
Mark Sanford (withdrawn) | 4,258 | 0.6% | 0 |
Joe Walsh (withdrawn) | 4,067 | 0.6% | 0 |
Total | 683,431 | 100% | 73 |
Democratic primary
Bernie Sanders and former Vice President Joe Biden were the two major declared Democratic candidates.[5]
Candidate | Votes | % | Delegates[7] |
---|---|---|---|
Joe Biden | 840,360 | 52.93 | 73 |
Bernie Sanders | 576,926 | 36.34 | 52 |
Michael Bloomberg (withdrawn)[a] | 73,464 | 4.63 | |
Elizabeth Warren (withdrawn)[a] | 26,148 | 1.65 | |
Pete Buttigieg (withdrawn)[b] | 22,462 | 1.41 | |
Amy Klobuchar (withdrawn)[b] | 11,018 | 0.69 | |
Tulsi Gabbard | 9,461 | 0.60 | |
Andrew Yang (withdrawn)[c] | 2,380 | 0.15 | |
Tom Steyer (withdrawn)[b] | 1,732 | 0.11 | |
Michael Bennet (withdrawn)[c] | 1,536 | 0.10 | |
Cory Booker (withdrawn) | 840 | 0.05 | |
Joe Sestak (withdrawn) | 757 | 0.05 | |
Marianne Williamson (withdrawn) | 719 | 0.05 | |
John Delaney (withdrawn)[d] | 464 | 0.03 | |
Julian Castro (withdrawn) | 306 | 0.02 | |
Uncommitted | 19,106 | 1.20 | |
Total | 1,587,679 | 100% | 125 |
General election
Predictions
Source | Ranking | As of |
---|---|---|
The Cook Political Report[8] | Tossup | March 9, 2020 |
Inside Elections[9] | Tilt D (flip) | April 3, 2020 |
CNN[10] | Tossup | June 11, 2020 |
Sabato's Crystal Ball[11] | Lean D (flip) | April 2, 2020 |
Politico[12] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
RCP[13] | Tossup | April 19, 2020 |
Niskanen[14] | Lean D (flip) | March 24, 2020 |
Polling
Aggregate polls
Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden | ||||||
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Source of poll aggregation | Dates administered | Dates updated | Joe Biden | Donald Trump | Other/Undecided[e] | Margin |
270 to Win | May 21, 2020 – June 7, 2020 | June 7, 2020 | 49.4% | 43.2% | Biden +6.2 | |
Real Clear Politics | April 18, 2020 – June 3, 2020 | June 7, 2020 | 50.0% | 42.7% | Biden +7.3 |
- Donald Trump vs. Joe Biden
Poll source | Date(s) administered |
Sample size[f] |
Margin of error |
Donald Trump (R) |
Joe Biden (D) |
Other | Undecided |
---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Change Research/CNBC | Jun 12-14, 2020 | ~361 (LV)[g] | – | 45% | 47% | 3%[h] | – |
American Greatness/TIPP | Jun 9-12, 2020 | 859 (LV) | – | 38% | 51% | 4%[i] | 7% |
Kiaer Research | May 31 - Jun 7, 2020 | 543 (LV) | ± 6.4% | 35% | 50% | 6%[j] | 8% |
EPIC-MRA | May 31-Jun 4, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 39% | 55% | – | – |
EPIC-MRA | May 30-Jun 3, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 41% | 53% | – | 6%[k] |
Change Research/CNBC | May 29-31, 2020 | 620 (LV)[l] | – | 46% | 48% | 3% | 3% |
PPP/Progress Michigan[A] | May 29-30, 2020 | 1,582 (V) | ± 2.5% | 44% | 50% | 4%[m] | 2% |
PPP/Protect Our Care[B] | May 18-19, 2020 | 1,234 (V) | ± 2.8% | 45% | 51% | – | 5% |
Change Research/Crooked Media | May 11-17, 2020 | 3,070 (LV) | – | 46% | 49% | – | – |
Redfield & Wilton Strategies | May 10-14, 2020 | 970 (LV) | ± 3.2% | 39% | 47% | 3%[n] | 11% |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | May 1-5, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 3% | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[C] | Apr 28–29, 2020 | 1,270 (V) | – | 42% | 50% | – | 8% |
Public Policy Polling[D] | April 20–21, 2020 | 1,277 (RV) | – | 44% | 51% | – | 5% |
Fox News | April 18–21, 2020 | 801 (RV) | ± 3.5% | 41% | 49% | 3% | 6% |
Ipsos/Reuters | April 15–20, 2020 | 612 (RV) | ± 5.0% | 38% | 46% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | April 9-11, 2020 | 600 (RV) | ± 3.0% | 43% | 49% | – | – |
Hart Research/CAP Action[E] | April 6–8, 2020 | 303 (RV) | – | 41% | 50% | 4% | 5% |
Public Policy Polling | March 31–Apr 1, 2020 | 1,019 (RV) | ± 3.1% | 45% | 48% | – | 7% |
SPRY Strategies | March 30–Apr 1, 2020 | 602 (LV) | ± 4.0% | 46% | 46% | – | 8% |
Baldwin Wallace University Great Lakes | March 17–25, 2020 | 997 (RV) | ± 3.7% | 42% | 47% | – | 11% |
Change Research | Mar 21–23, 2020 | 510 (LV) | – | 47% | 48% | 5% | |
Marketing Resource Group | Mar 16–20, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4.0 % | 41% | 44% | – | – |
Hodas & Associates/Restoration PAC (R) | Mar 12–16, 2020 | 600 (RV) | – | 44% | 50% | – | – |
AtlasIntel | Mar 7–9, 2020 | 1,100 (RV) | ± 3.0 % | 46% | 44% | 10% | – |
YouGov/Yahoo News | Mar 6–8, 2020 | 566 (RV) | – | 41% | 45% | 6%[o] | 7% |
Monmouth University | Mar 5–8, 2020 | 977 (RV) | ± 3.1 % | 41% | 48% | 2% | 9% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 5–7, 2020 | 550 (RV) | ± 5.3 % | 46% | 44% | – | – |
YouGov | Feb 11–20, 2020 | 1,249 (RV) | ± 4.0 % | 43% | 47% | – | – |
Quinnipiac University | Feb 12–18, 2020 | 845 (RV) | ± 3.4 % | 43% | 47% | 6%[p] | 3% |
Expedition Strategies/Progressive Policies Institute | Feb 6-18, 2020 | 500 (RV) | – | 43% | 43% | – | 14% |
EPIC-MRA/Detroit Free Press[1] | Jan 9–12, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 44% | 50% | – | 6% |
Glengariff Group Inc. | Jan 3–7, 2020 | 600 (LV) | ± 4% | 43% | 50% | – | 5% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Dec 3–5, 2019 | 551 (LV) | ± 4.3% | 46% | 41% | 8% [q] | 5% [r] |
Emerson College | Oct 31–Nov 3, 2019 | 1,051 | ± 3.0% | 44% | 56% | – | – |
NYT Upshot/Siena College | Oct 13–25, 2019 | 501 (LV) | ± 5.1% | 44% | 45% | – | – |
Target Insyght | Sep 24–26, 2019 | 800 | – | 35% | 54% | – | – |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Sep 7–9, 2019 | 529 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 42% | 17% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Aug 17–21, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 51% | – | 8% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Jun 11–13, 2019 | 587 | ± 4.2% | 43% | 46% | 11% | – |
EPIC-MRA | Jun 8–12, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 52% | – | 7% |
Glengariff Group | May 28–30, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 41% | 53% | – | 4% |
WPA Intelligence | Apr 27–30, 2019 | 200 | ± 6.9% | 42% | 45% | – | 12% |
Firehouse Strategies/Øptimus | Mar 19–21, 2019 | 530 | ± 4.5% | 46% | 45% | 4% | – |
Emerson College | Mar 7–10, 2019 | 743 | ± 3.5% | 46% | 54% | – | – |
Glengariff Group | Jan 24–26, 2019 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 40% | 53% | – | 5% |
EPIC-MRA | Apr 28–30, 2018 | 600 | ± 4.0% | 39% | 52% | – | 9% |
Zogby Analytics | Sep 2017 | 800 | – | 35% | 52% | – | 13% |
Former candidates
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Hypothetical polling
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See also
- 2020 United States presidential election
- 2020 Democratic Party presidential primaries
- 2020 Republican Party presidential primaries
- 2020 United States elections
Notes
- Partisan clients
- ^ Progress Michigan is a non-profit that primarily supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Protect Our Care is a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Progress Michigan, the Michigan branch of Progress Now, a progressive advocacy organisation
- ^ Poll sponsored by Protect Our Care, a pro-Affordable Care Act organisation
- ^ CAP Action is a political advocacy group that exclusively supports Democratic candidates
- ^ Poll sponsored by the Sanders campaign
- Voter samples and additional candidates
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b c Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, before Super Tuesday.
- ^ a b Candidate withdrew during absentee voting, following the New Hampshire primary.
- ^ Candidate withdrew in January, shortly after absentee voting had begun.
- ^ Calculated by taking the difference of 100% and all other candidates combined.
- ^ a b c d e f g h i j k l m n Key:
A – all adults
RV – registered voters
LV – likely voters
V – unclear - ^ 15% of a 2,408 AZ/FLMI/NC/PA/WI likely voter sample
- ^ "Libertarian Party candidate/Green Party candidate" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; "prefer not to answer" with 0%
- ^ "A different candidate" with 6%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ Additional data sourced from FiveThirtyEight
- ^ "Third party" with 4%
- ^ "Third party/write-in" with 3%
- ^ "Other" with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ A third party candidate with 5%; would not vote with 3%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ "Other" with 5%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ "Someone else" with 3%; would not vote with 4%
- ^ A third party candidate with 4%; would not vote with 2%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ "Someone else" with 2%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ A third party candidate with 3%; would not vote with 5%
- ^ Includes "refused"
- ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- ^ "It depends on who the Democrats nominate" with 1.9%; "unsure" with 1%
- ^ Figures for each candidate in this poll include undecided voters who were reported to lean towards that candidate at the time of polling.
- ^ Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- ^ Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
- ^ Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- ^ Listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"
- ^ Listed as "Would vote to replace Trump"
- ^ 19% listed as "would consider voting for someone other than Trump"; 3% as "undecided/refused"
- ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 45%
- ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 19%; "Undecided/refused" with 4%
- ^ "Vote to replace Trump" with 49%
- ^ "Consider voting for someone else" with 16%; "Don't know/refused" with 4%
References
- ^ Kelly, Ben (August 13, 2018). "US elections key dates: When are the 2018 midterms and the 2020 presidential campaign?". The Independent. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Distribution of Electoral Votes". National Archives and Records Administration. Retrieved January 3, 2019.
- ^ "Michigan Will Keep Mark Sanford's Name on the Republican Presidential Primary Unless he Sends in a Withdrawal Letter | Ballot Access News". November 21, 2019.
- ^ "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. April 30, 2020. Retrieved November 12, 2020.
- ^ Taylor, Kate (9 February 2019). "Elizabeth Warren Formally Announces 2020 Presidential Bid in Lawrence, Mass". The New York Times. Retrieved 10 February 2019.
- ^ "2020 Michigan Election Results". Michigan Secretary of State. Retrieved June 11, 2020.
- ^ "Associated Press Election Services - Delegate Tracker". Associated Press. Retrieved November 23, 2022.
- ^ "2020 POTUS Race ratings" (PDF). The Cook Political Report. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ "POTUS Ratings | Inside Elections". insideelections.com. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ CNN, David Chalian and Terence Burlij. "Road to 270: CNN's debut Electoral College map for 2020". CNN. Retrieved 2020-06-16.
{{cite web}}
:|last=
has generic name (help) - ^ "Larry J. Sabato's Crystal Ball » 2020 President". crystalball.centerforpolitics.org. Retrieved 2019-05-21.
- ^ "2020 Election Forecast". Politico. November 19, 2019.
- ^ "Battle for White House". RCP. April 19, 2019.
- ^ 2020 Bitecofer Model Electoral College Predictions, Niskanen Center, March 24, 2020, retrieved: April 19, 2020