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Revision as of 15:53, 24 September 2016

This article is about the election itself. For the 2016 election timeline, see United States presidential election, 2016 timeline.
United States presidential election, 2016
← 2012 November 8, 2016 2020 →
538 members of the Electoral College
270 electoral votes needed to win
Opinion polls
 
Nominee Hillary Clinton Donald Trump
Party Democratic Republican
Home state New York New York
Running mate Tim Kaine Mike Pence
 
Nominee Gary Johnson Jill Stein
Party Libertarian Green
Home state New Mexico Massachusetts
Running mate William Weld Ajamu Baraka
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The electoral map for the 2016 election, based on apportionment following the 2010 census
Incumbent President

Barack Obama
Democratic



2016 U.S. presidential election
Republican Party
Democratic Party
Third parties
Related races
← 2012 2016 2020 →

The United States presidential election of 2016, scheduled for Tuesday, November 8, 2016, will be the 58th quadrennial U.S. presidential election.

Voters will select presidential electors, who in turn will vote for a new president and vice president through the Electoral College. The term limit established in the Twenty-second Amendment to the United States Constitution prevents the incumbent president, Barack Obama of the Democratic Party, from being elected to a third term. The 2016 election will likely determine the 45th President and 48th Vice President of the United States.

The series of presidential primary elections and caucuses took place between February and June 2016, staggered among the 50 states, the District of Columbia and U.S. territories. This nominating process was also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of delegates to a political party's nominating convention, who in turn elect their party's presidential nominee. Businessman and reality television personality Donald Trump became the Republican Party's presidential nominee on July 19, 2016, after defeating Texas Senator Ted Cruz, Ohio Governor John Kasich, Florida Senator Marco Rubio and other candidates in the Republican primary elections.[1] If elected, Trump would become the oldest president to take office.[2] Former Secretary of State and New York Senator Hillary Clinton became the Democratic Party's presidential nominee on July 26, 2016, after defeating Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders. Clinton is the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major political party.

Various third party and independent presidential candidates are also running in the election. Two are on the ballot in enough states to mathematically win the electoral college: Libertarian Party nominee and former Governor of New Mexico, Gary Johnson; and Green Party nominee, Jill Stein; both of whom have appeared in major national polls.[3][4] Johnson and Stein also ran as their parties' presidential nominees in the 2012 election.

Background

Further information: United States presidential election § Procedure
Barack Obama, the incumbent president, whose term expires in January 2017

Article Two of the United States Constitution provides that the President and Vice President of the United States must be natural-born citizens of the United States at least 35 years old, and a resident of the United States for a period of at least 14 years. Candidates for the presidency typically seek the nomination of one of the political parties of the United States, in which case each party devises a method (such as a primary election) to choose the candidate the party deems best suited to run for the position. Traditionally, the primary elections are indirect elections where voters cast ballots for a slate of party delegates pledged to a particular candidate. The party's delegates then officially nominate a candidate to run on the party's behalf. The general election in November is also an indirect election, where voters cast ballots for a slate of members of the Electoral College; these electors in turn directly elect the President and Vice President.

Obama, a Democrat and former U.S. Senator from Illinois, is ineligible to seek reelection to a third term due to restrictions of the Twenty-second Amendment; in accordance with Section I of the Twentieth Amendment, his term expires at 12:00 noon EST on January 20, 2017.

2008 presidential election

Further information: United States presidential election, 2008

In the 2008 election, Obama was elected president, defeating the Republican nominee, Senator John McCain of Arizona, with 53% of the popular vote and 68% of the electoral vote,[5][6] succeeding two-term Republican President George W. Bush, the former Governor of Texas. Since the end of 2009, Obama's first year in office, polling companies such as Gallup have found Obama's approval ratings to be between 40–50%.[7][8] Analysts such as Larry Sabato have noted that Obama's approval ratings could impact the 2016 campaign, having either a positive or negative effect on Clinton's campaign.[9][10]

2010 midterm elections

Further information: United States elections, 2010

In the 2010 midterm elections, the Democratic Party suffered significant losses in Congress; the Republicans gained 63 seats in the House of Representatives – taking back control of the chamber in the process – and six seats in the Senate, though short of achieving a majority. As a result of the Republicans' recapture of the House after losing it to the Democrats in the 2006 midterm elections, John Boehner became the 53rd Speaker of the House of Representatives, making Obama the first President in 16 years to lose the House of Representatives in the first half of his first term in an election that was characterized by the economy's slow recovery, and the rise of the Tea Party movement.[11]

2012 presidential election

Further information: United States presidential election, 2012

In the 2012 presidential election, Obama defeated former Governor of Massachusetts Mitt Romney with 51% of the popular vote and 62% of the electoral vote.[12] Meanwhile, despite minor losses, Republicans retained their majority of seats in the House of Representatives while Democrats increased their majority in the Senate.[6]

Speculation about the 2016 campaign began almost immediately following the 2012 campaign, with New York magazine declaring the race had begun in an article published on November 8, two days after the 2012 election.[13] On the same day, Politico released an article predicting the 2016 general election would be between Clinton and former Governor of Florida Jeb Bush, while a New York Times article named Governor of New Jersey Chris Christie and New Jersey Senator Cory Booker as potential candidates.[14][15]

2014 midterm elections

Further information: United States elections, 2014

In the 2014 midterm elections, voter turnout was the lowest since 1942: 36% of eligible voters voted.[16] The Republicans retained control of the House of Representatives, increasing their majority to its largest since March 4, 1929,[17] and gained a majority in the Senate.[18]

Democratic Party

Primaries

Main article: Democratic Party presidential primaries, 2016
This article is part of a series about
Hillary Clinton
First Lady of the United States
U.S. Senator from New York
U.S. Secretary of State
2008 presidential campaign
2016 presidential campaign
Organizations

Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, who also served in the U.S. Senate and was the First Lady of the United States, became the first Democrat to formally launch a major candidacy for the presidency. Clinton made the announcement on April 12, 2015, via a video message.[19] While Nationwide opinion polls in 2015 indicated that Clinton was the front-runner for the 2016 Democratic presidential nomination, she faced challenges from Independent Vermont Senator Bernie Sanders,[20] who became the second major candidate when he formally announced on April 30, 2015, that he was running for the Democratic nomination.[21] September 2015 polling numbers indicated a narrowing gap between Clinton and Sanders.[20][22][23] On May 30, 2015, former Governor of Maryland Martin O'Malley was the third major candidate to enter the Democratic primary race.[24] On June 3, 2015, Lincoln Chafee, former Independent Governor and Republican Senator of Rhode Island, became the fourth major candidate to announce his candidacy for the Democratic nomination.[25][26] On July 2, 2015, former Virginia Senator Jim Webb became the fifth major Democratic candidate to announce his bid for the presidency.[27] On September 6, 2015, former Harvard law professor Lawrence Lessig became the sixth and final major Democratic candidate to enter the race.[28]

On October 20, 2015, Webb announced his withdrawal from the Democratic primaries, and explored a potential Independent run.[29] The next day Vice-President Joe Biden decided not to run, ending months of speculation, stating, "While I will not be a candidate, I will not be silent."[30][31] On October 23, Chafee withdrew, stating that he hoped for "an end to the endless wars and the beginning of a new era for the United States and humanity."[32] On November 2, after failing to qualify for the second DNC-sanctioned debate after adoption of a rule change negated polls which before might have necessitated his inclusion in the debate, Lessig withdrew as well, narrowing the field to Clinton, O'Malley, and Sanders.[33]

On February 1, 2016, in an extremely close contest, Clinton won the Iowa caucuses by a margin of 0.2% over Sanders. After winning no delegates in Iowa, O'Malley withdrew from the presidential race that day. On February 9, Sanders bounced back to win the New Hampshire primary with 60% of the vote. In the remaining two February contests, Clinton won the Nevada caucuses with 53% of the vote and scored a decisive victory in the South Carolina primary with 73% of the vote.[34][35] On March 1, 11 states participated in the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries. Clinton won Alabama, Arkansas, Georgia, Massachusetts, Tennessee, Texas, and Virginia and 504 pledged delegates, while Sanders won Colorado, Minnesota, Oklahoma and his home state of Vermont and 340 delegates. The following weekend, Sanders won victories in Kansas, Nebraska and Maine with 15- to 30-point margins, while Clinton won the Louisiana primary with 71% of the vote. On March 8, despite never having a lead in the Michigan primary, Sanders won by a small margin of 1.5% and outperforming polls by over 19 points, while Clinton won 83% of the vote in Mississippi.[36] On March 15, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Clinton won in Florida, Illinois, Missouri, North Carolina and Ohio. Between March 22 and April 9, 2016, Sanders won six caucuses in Idaho, Utah, Alaska, Hawaii, Washington and Wyoming, as well as the Wisconsin primary, while Clinton won the Arizona primary. On April 19, Clinton won the New York primary with 58% of the vote. On April 26, in the third of four "Super Tuesday" primaries dubbed the "Acela primary," she won contests in Connecticut, Delaware, Maryland and Pennsylvania, while Sanders won in Rhode Island. Over the course of May, Sanders accomplished another surprise win in the Indiana primary[37] and also won in West Virginia and Oregon, while Clinton won the Guam caucus and Kentucky primary.

On June 4 and 5, Clinton won two victories in the Virgin Islands caucus and Puerto Rico primary. On June 6, 2016, the Associated Press and NBC News reported that Clinton had become the presumptive nominee after reaching the required number of delegates, including pledged delegates and superdelegates, to secure the nomination, becoming the first woman to ever clinch the presidential nomination of a major United States political party.[38] On June 7, Clinton secured a majority of pledged delegates after winning primaries in California, New Jersey, New Mexico and South Dakota, while Sanders only won in Montana and North Dakota. Clinton also won the final primary in Washington, D.C. on June 14. At the conclusion of the primary process, Clinton had won 2,204 pledged delegates (54% of the total) awarded by the primary elections and caucuses, while Sanders had won 1,847 (46%). Out of the 714 unpledged delegates or "superdelegates" who were set to vote in the convention in July, Clinton received endorsements from 560 (78%), while Sanders received 47 (7%).[39]

Although Sanders had not formally dropped out of the race, he announced on June 16, 2016, that his main goal in the coming months would be to work with Clinton to defeat Trump in the general election.[40] On July 8, appointees from the Clinton campaign, the Sanders campaign, and the Democratic National Committee negotiated a draft of the party's platform.[41] On July 12, Sanders formally endorsed Clinton at a rally in New Hampshire in which he appeared with Clinton.[42] On July 22, three days before the start of the Democratic National Convention, the Clinton campaign announced that Virginia Senator Tim Kaine had been selected as her running mate. Clinton is the first female presidential candidate nominated by a major political party.

Nominees

Democratic Party (United States)
Democratic Party (United States)
Democratic Party ticket, 2016
Hillary Clinton Tim Kaine
for President for Vice President
67th
U.S. Secretary of State
(2009–2013) 		U.S. Senator from Virginia
(2013–present)
Campaign
[43][44][45]

Other major candidates

Main article: Democratic Party presidential candidates, 2016

The following candidates were frequently interviewed by major broadcast networks and cable news channels, and were listed in publicly published national polls. Lessig was invited to one forum, but withdrew when rules were changed which prevented him from participating in officially sanctioned debates.

Clinton received 16,849,779 votes in the primary.

Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal from the primaries
Bernie Sanders Martin O'Malley Lawrence Lessig Lincoln Chafee Jim Webb
U.S. Senator from Vermont (2007–present)
61st
Governor of Maryland
(2007–2015)
Harvard Law Professor
(2009–2016)
74th
Governor of Rhode Island
(2011–2015)
U.S. Senator
from Virginia
(2007–2013)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
LN: Jul 26, 2016
13,167,848 primary votes and 1,846 delegates
W: Feb 1, 2016
110,423 votes
W: Nov 2, 2015
4 write-in votes in New Hampshire
W: Oct 23, 2015
0 votes
W: Oct 20, 2015
2 write-in votes in New Hampshire
[46]
[47][48]
[33]
[49]
[50]

Vice presidential selection

Main article: Democratic Party vice presidential candidate selection, 2016

In April 2016, the Clinton campaign began to put together a list of 15 to 20 individuals to vet for the position of running mate, even though Sanders continued to challenge Clinton in the Democratic primaries.[51] In mid-June, the The Wall Street Journal reported that Clinton's shortlist included Representative Xavier Becerra of California, Senator Cory Booker of New Jersey, Senator Sherrod Brown of Ohio, Housing and Urban Development Secretary Julián Castro of Texas, Mayor of Los Angeles Eric Garcetti of California, Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia, Labor Secretary Tom Perez of Maryland, Representative Tim Ryan of Ohio, and Senator Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts.[52] Subsequent reports stated that Clinton was also considering Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack, retired Admiral James Stavridis, and Governor John Hickenlooper of Colorado.[53] In discussing her potential vice presidential choice, Clinton stated that the most important attribute she looked for was the ability and experience to immediately step into the role of president.[53]

On July 22, Clinton announced that she had chosen Senator Tim Kaine of Virginia as her running mate.[54] The delegates at the 2016 Democratic National Convention, which took place July 25–28, formally nominated the Democratic ticket.

Republican Party

Primaries

Main article: Republican Party presidential primaries, 2016
This article is part of
a series about
Donald Trump
Business and personal
45th & 47th President of the
United States
Tenure
Policies
Appointments (first  · second)
Presidential campaigns
Impeachments
Civil and criminal prosecutions
COVID-19 pandemic
Donald Trump's signature
Seal of the President of the United States

Seventeen major candidates entered the race starting March 23, 2015, when Senator Ted Cruz of Texas was the first to announce his candidacy: former Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson of Maryland, Governor Chris Christie of New Jersey, businesswoman Carly Fiorina of California, former Governor Jim Gilmore of Virginia, Senator Lindsey Graham of South Carolina, former Governor Mike Huckabee of Arkansas, former Governor Bobby Jindal of Louisiana, Governor John Kasich of Ohio, former Governor George Pataki of New York, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky, former Governor Rick Perry of Texas, Senator Marco Rubio of Florida, former Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania, businessman Donald Trump of New York and Governor Scott Walker of Wisconsin. This was the largest presidential primary field for any political party in American history.[55]

Prior to the Iowa caucuses on February 1, 2016, Perry, Walker, Jindal, Graham and Pataki withdrew due to low polling numbers. Despite leading many polls in Iowa, Trump came in second to Cruz, after which Huckabee, Paul and Santorum withdrew due to poor performances at the ballot box. Following a sizable victory for Trump in the New Hampshire primary, Christie, Fiorina and Gilmore abandoned the race. Bush followed suit after scoring fourth place to Trump, Rubio and Cruz in South Carolina. On March 1, 2016, the first of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Rubio won his first contest in Minnesota, Cruz won Alaska, Oklahoma and his home of Texas and Trump won the other seven states that voted. Failing to gain traction, Carson suspended his campaign a few days later.[56] On March 15, 2016, the second of four "Super Tuesday" primaries, Kasich won his only contest in his home state of Ohio and Trump won five primaries including Florida. Rubio suspended his campaign after losing his home state,[57] but retained a large share of his delegates for the national convention, which he released to Trump.[57]

Between March 16 and May 3, 2016, only three candidates remained in the race: Trump, Cruz and Kasich. Cruz won most delegates in four Western contests and in Wisconsin, keeping a credible path to denying Trump the nomination on first ballot with 1,237 delegates. Trump then augmented his lead by scoring landslide victories in New York and five Northeastern states in April and he grabbed all 57 delegates in the Indiana primary of May 3, 2016. Without any further chances of forcing a contested convention, both Cruz[58] and Kasich[59] suspended their campaigns. Trump remained the only active candidate and was declared the presumptive Republican nominee by Republican National Committee chairman Reince Priebus on the evening of May 3, 2016.[60]

It is the first election since 1944 in which both major party candidates were from the same home state. In both cases, the two candidates were from New York.

Nominees

Republican Party (United States)
Republican Party (United States)
Republican Party ticket, 2016
Donald Trump Mike Pence
for President for Vice President
Chairman of
The Trump Organization
(1971–present) 		50th
Governor of Indiana
(2013–present)
Campaign
[61][62][63]

Other major candidates

Major candidates were determined by the various media based on common consensus. The following were invited to sanctioned televised debates based on their poll ratings.

Trump received 14,010,177 total votes in the primary. He, Cruz, Rubio and Kasich each won at least one primary.

Main article: Republican Party presidential candidates, 2016
Candidates in this section are sorted by date of withdrawal from the primaries
John Kasich Ted Cruz Marco Rubio Ben Carson Jeb Bush Jim Gilmore Carly Fiorina Chris Christie
69th
Governor of Ohio
(2011–present)
U.S. Senator
from Texas
(2013–present)
U.S. Senator
from Florida
(2011–present)
Dir. of Pediatric Neurosurgery,
Johns Hopkins Hospital
(1984–2013)
43rd
Governor of Florida
(1999–2007)
68th
Governor of Virginia
(1998–2002)
CEO of Hewlett-Packard
(1999–2005)
55th
Governor of New Jersey
(2010–present)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
W: May 4
4,287,479 votes
W: May 3
7,811,110 votes
W: Mar 15
3,514,124 votes
W: Mar 4
857,009 votes
W: Feb 20
286,634 votes
W: Feb 12
18,364 votes
W: Feb 10
40,577 votes
W: Feb 10
57,634 votes
[64]
[65][66][67]
[68][69][70]
[71][72][73]
[74][75]
[76][77]
[78][79]
[80][81]
Rand Paul Rick Santorum Mike Huckabee George Pataki Lindsey Graham Bobby Jindal Scott Walker Rick Perry
U.S. Senator
from Kentucky
(2011–present)
U.S. Senator
from Pennsylvania
(1995–2007)
44th
Governor of Arkansas
(1996–2007)
53rd
Governor of New York
(1995–2006)
U.S. Senator
from South Carolina
(2003–present)
55th
Governor of Louisiana
(2008–2016)
45th
Governor of Wisconsin
(2011–present)
47th
Governor of Texas
(2000–2015)
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
Campaign
W: Feb 3
66,781 votes
W: Feb 3
16,622 votes
W: Feb 1
51,436 votes
W: Dec 29, 2015
2,036 votes
W: Dec 21, 2015
5,666 votes
W: Nov 17, 2015
222 votes
W: Sept 21, 2015
0 votes
W: Sept 11, 2015
0 votes
[82][83][84]
[85][86]
[87][88]
[89]
[90][91]
[92][93]
[94][95]
[96][97]

Vice presidential selection

Main article: Republican Party vice presidential candidate selection, 2016

Donald Trump turned his attention towards selecting a running mate after he became the presumptive nominee on May 4, 2016.[98] In mid-June, Eli Stokols and Burgess Everett of Politico reported that the Trump campaign was considering New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, former Speaker of the House Newt Gingrich of Georgia, Alabama Senator Jeff Sessions, and Oklahoma Governor Mary Fallin.[99] A June 30 Washington Post report also included Senators Bob Corker of Tennessee, Richard Burr of North Carolina, Tom Cotton of Arkansas, Joni Ernst of Iowa, and Indiana Governor Mike Pence as individuals still being considered for the ticket.[100] Trump also stated that he was considering two military generals for the position, including retired Lieutenant General Michael Flynn.[101]

In July 2016, it was reported that Trump had narrowed his list of possible running mates down to three: Christie, Gingrich, and Pence.[102]

On July 14, 2016, several major media outlets reported that Trump had selected Pence as his running mate. Trump confirmed these reports in a message on Twitter on July 15, 2016, and formally made the announcement the following day in New York.[103][104][105][106][107] On July 19, the second night of the 2016 Republican National Convention, Pence won the Republican vice presidential nomination by acclamation.[108]

Major third parties

Parties in this section have obtained ballot access or write-in access in enough states to theoretically obtain the minimum number of electoral votes (270 out of 538) needed to win the election. Individuals included in this section have received the presidential nomination of a third party, or are formally running as an independent candidate. Within each party, candidates are listed alphabetically by surname.

Libertarian Party

Further information: Libertarian Party (United States) and Libertarian Party presidential primaries, 2016
This article is part of a series about
Gary Johnson
Governor of New Mexico
Presidential campaigns

Seal of the Governor of New Mexico

Ballot access to all 538 electoral votes[109]

Nominees


Libertarian Party ticket, 2016
Gary Johnson William Weld
for President for Vice President
29th
Governor of New Mexico
(1995–2003) 		68th
Governor of Massachusetts
(1991–1997)
Campaign
[110][111]

Green Party

Further information: Green Party of the United States and Green Party presidential primaries, 2016
This article is part of a series about
Jill Stein
Massachusetts campaigns
Presidential campaigns
Political party affiliations
Ballot access for the Green Party
  On ballot
  Write-in
  Pending lawsuit
  Not on ballot

Ballot access to 480 (522 with write-in) electoral votes[112][113]

  • As write-in: Georgia, Indiana, North Carolina.[112][114]
  • Ballot access lawsuit pending: Oklahoma[115]
  • States with no ballot access: Nevada, South Dakota[112][116]

Nominees

Green Party ticket, 2016
Jill Stein Ajamu Baraka
for President for Vice President
Physician
from Lexington, Massachusetts 		Activist
from Washington, D.C.
Campaign
[117][118]

Constitution Party

Further information: Constitution Party of the United States
Ballot access for the Constitution Party
  On ballot
  Write-in
  Not on ballot

Ballot access to 207 (334 with write-in) electoral votes:[119][120]

  • As write-in: Alabama, Delaware, Georgia, Indiana, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, Ohio, Oregon, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont[119][121][122]
  • Write-in anticipated: Arizona, California, Connecticut, Illinois, Kansas, Kentucky, Massachusetts, Montana, Nebraska, New York, North Carolina, Tennessee, Virginia[119]
  • States with no ballot access: Oklahoma[119]

Nominees

File:Constitution Party Logo.gif
Constitution Party ticket, 2016
Darrell Castle Scott Bradley
for President for Vice President
Attorney
from Memphis, Tennessee 		Businessman
from Utah
Campaign
File:Castle 2016.jpg
[123]

Evan McMullin's candidacy

Ballot access for Evan McMullin
  On ballot
  Write-in
  Not on ballot

Ballot access to 84 (303 with write-in) electoral votes:

  • As write-in: Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Georgia, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Ohio, Oregon, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, West Virginia, Wyoming[121][122][124][125][126][127][128][129]
  • States with no ballot access: Arizona, California, Connectictut, District of Columbia, Florida, Hawaii, Illinois, Indiana, Kansas, Massachussetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, Nevada, New York, North Carolina, North Dakota, Oklahoma, South Dakota, Tennessee, Washington
Independent ticket, 2016
Evan McMullin
for President
File:Evan McMullin.jpg
Chief policy director for the
House Republican Conference (2015-2016)[130]
Campaign
[131]

Other third parties and independents

Main article: United States third-party and independent presidential candidates, 2016

Parties and candidates in this section have attained ballot access in one or more states but have not obtained access to the minimum number of electoral votes needed to theoretically win the election. Unless otherwise specified, individuals included in this section have either received the presidential nomination of a minor party, or are officially running as an independent presidential candidate.

Ballot access for the American Delta Party and Reform Party
Ballot access for the Party for Socialism and Liberation, Peace and Freedom Party, and Liberty Union Party
Party Presidential nominee Vice presidential nominee Electors
(write-in) 		States with ballot access
(write-in)
Independent

American Delta Party
Reform Party[132]

Rocky De La Fuente
Businessman from San Diego, California 		Michael Steinberg
Lawyer from Florida 		147
(181) 		Alaska, Colorado, Florida, Idaho, Iowa, Kentucky, Minnesota, Mississippi, Montana, Nevada, New Hampshire, New Jersey, New Mexico, North Dakota, Rhode Island, Tennessee, Utah, Vermont, Wisconsin, Wyoming[120][133][134][135][136][137][138]

(Alabama, Pennsylvania, West Virginia)[139][124]

Party for Socialism and Liberation

Peace and Freedom[140]
Liberty Union Party[141]

Gloria La Riva
Newspaper printer and activist from California 		Eugene Puryear
Activist from Washington, D.C. 		112
(157) 		California, Colorado, Iowa, Louisiana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Vermont, Washington[142][143]

(Alabama, Delaware, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, West Virginia)[139][124][125]

Socialist Workers Party Alyson Kennedy
Mineworker and Labor Leader from Illinois 		Osborne Hart
of Pennsylvania 		70
(124) 		Colorado, Louisiana, Minnesota, New Jersey, Tennessee, Utah, Washington[142]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Workers World Party Monica Moorehead
perennial candidate and political activist from Alabama[144] 		Lamont Lilly
of North Carolina[145] 		30
(130) 		New Jersey, Utah, Wisconsin[142]

(Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont, West Virginia)[139][124][146][147]

Socialist Party USA

Natural Law Party[148]

Mimi Soltysik
former National Co-Chair of the Socialist Party USA from California[149]
Campaign 		Angela Walker
of Wisconsin 		25
(140) 		Colorado, Michigan[142][143]

(Alabama, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Vermont)[139][146][147][150]

America's Party Tom Hoefling
activist from Iowa[151] 		Steve Schulin
of South Carolina 		23
(154) 		Arkansas, Colorado, Louisiana[142]

(Alabama, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Vermont)[121][139][146][147][150]

Prohibition Party James Hedges
former Tax Assessor for Thompson Township, Fulton County, Pennsylvania[152][153] 		Bill Bayes
of Mississippi[152] 		21
(96) 		Arkansas, Colorado, Mississippi[142]

(Alabama, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia)[122][139][124]

Independent Mike Smith
Lawyer, Colorado 		Daniel White 20
(110) 		Colorado, Tennessee[142]

(Alabama, Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia)[139][124][127][150]

Independent Richard Duncan
of Ohio 		Ricky Johnson 18
(136) 		Ohio[154]

(Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Florida, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia)[122][139][124][143][125][127][146]

Independent Laurence Kotlikoff
Economics Professor at Boston University, Massachusetts 		Edward E. Leamer
Economics Professor at UCLA, California 		17
(199) 		Colorado, Louisiana[142]

(Alabama, Alaska, Florida, Georgia, Indiana, Iowa, Maine, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Utah, Vermont, West Virginia)[122][139][124][143][127][146][147][150][155][156]

Veterans Party of America Chris Keniston
reliability engineer from Texas[157] 		Deacon Taylor
of Nevada[158] 		17
(80) 		Colorado, Louisiana[142]

(Alabama, Alaska, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139][127]

Legal Marijuana Now Party Dan Vacek
of Minnesota 		Mark Elworth Jr.
of Nebraska 		16
(70) 		Iowa, Minnesota[142]

(Alabama, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Independent Lynn Kahn
Doctor of Clinical Psychology from Maryland 		Kathleen Monahan
of Florida 		12
(71) 		Arkansas, Iowa[134][142]

(Alabama, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia)[139][124]

American Solidarity Party Mike Maturen
sales professional and magician from Michigan 		Juan Muñoz
of Texas 		9
(135) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Georgia, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Texas, Vermont)[121][122][139][147]

Independent Joseph Allen Maldonado
of Oklahoma 		Douglas K. Terranova 9
(101) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Alaska, Delaware, Indiana, Iowa, Maryland, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont, West Virginia)[122][139][124][125][127][146]

Independent Ryan Alan Scott Bruce Kendall Barnard 9
(69) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Approval Voting Party Frank Atwood
of Colorado 		Blake Huber
of Colorado 		9
(69) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Independent American Party Kyle Kenle Kopitke
of Michigan 		Narthan R. Sorenson 9
(69) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Nutrition Party Rod Silva
restaurateur from New Jersey[160][161] 		Richard Silva 9
(69) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

United States Pacifist Party Bradford Lyttle
peace activist from Illinois 		Hannah Walsh 9
(69) 		Colorado[159]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

American Party (South Carolina) Peter Skewes
Animal Science Professor at Clemson University, South Carolina 		undeclared 9
(69) 		South Carolina[162]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Independent Princess Khadijah Jacob-Fambro
of California 		Milton Fambro
of California 		8
(68) 		Louisiana[163]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Socialist Equality Party Jerry White
peace activist from Michigan 		Niles Niemuth
journalist from Wisconsin 		8
(68) 		Louisiana[163]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Independent American Party Rocky Giordani
from California 		Farley Anderson
activist from Utah 		6
(66) 		Utah[150]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Constitution Party of Idaho Scott Copeland
of Texas 		J.R. Meyers 4
(64) 		Idaho[164]

(Alabama, Iowa, New Hampshire, New Jersey, Pennsylvania, Rhode Island, Vermont)[139]

Swing states

Further information: Swing state
The fraction of United States presidential election voters not belonging to a racial or ethnic minority from 2000 to 2012, with projected 2016 data.

Presidential campaigns focus their resources on a relatively small number of competitive states, referred to as swing or battleground states.[165] Potential swing states are: Florida, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, North Carolina, Colorado, Virginia, Wisconsin, Nevada, Iowa and New Hampshire.[166][167] Florida is the largest swing state and has been won by the overall winner every election since 1992. Ohio is another large swing state and has a perfect bellwether record since 1960. The states regarded as competitive can fluctuate, as the polls fluctuate.

A pundit consensus came forth throughout the primary election season regarding swing states. Contributors included Larry Sabato's Crystal Ball and Nate Silver of FiveThirtyEight.[168] From the results of presidential elections from 2004 through to 2012, a general conclusion was reached that the Democratic and Republican parties start with a default electoral vote count of about 191 each.[169][170] The margins required to constitute a swing state are vague, however and local factors can come into play.[171][172] Left-leaning states in the Rust Belt could become more conservative, as Trump mostly appeals to blue-collar workers.[173] They represent a large portion of the American populace, and were a major factor in Trump's eventual nomination. Trump's primary campaign was propelled by victories in Democratic states, and his supporters often did not identify as Republican.

In Maine and Nebraska, two delegates are given to whoever has the most overall votes, and the winner of every congressional district receives one electoral vote.[174] Every other state awards all of its electoral votes to the candidate with the highest vote percentage.[175] Media reports indicate both candidates plan to concentrate on Florida, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Ohio and North Carolina.[176][177]

Among the Republican-leaning states, potential Democratic targets include Nebraska's second congressional district, Missouri, Indiana, Georgia, and Arizona.[178] Trump's relatively poor polling in some traditionally Republican states, such as Utah, has raised the possibility they could vote for Clinton, despite easy wins there by recent Republican nominees.[179] However, multiple analysts have asserted that Utah is not a viable Democratic destination.[180][181]

Sites and individuals publish electoral predictions. These generally rate the race by the probability either of the two main parties wins each state. "Tossup" is generally used to indicate that neither party has an advantage, "lean" to indicate a party has a slight edge, "likely" to indicate a party has a clear advantage, and "safe" to indicate a party is heavily favored. States ratings from the Cook Political Report, Sabato's Crystal Ball, or the Rothenberg-Gonzales Political Report are included in the table below. The state's Cook PVI and the latest swing for each state are also listed, as well as competitive congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska.

State Electoral
votes 		2012
margin 		2014
Cook PVI 		Cook
Sept. 22
2016[182] 		RCP
Sept. 15
2016[183] 		Roth.
Sept. 16
2016[184] 		Sabato
Sept. 19
2016[185] 		Last
swing[186]
Arizona 11 9.1 R R+7 Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R 1996
Colorado 9 5.4 D D+1 Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D 2004
Florida 29 0.9 D R+2 Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup 2004
Georgia 16 7.8 R R+6 Lean R Tossup Lean R Lean R 1992
Iowa 6 5.8 D D+1 Lean R Tossup Tilt D Lean R 2004
Maine CD-2 1 8.6 D D+2 Tossup Tossup No rating Lean R 1988
Michigan 16 9.5 D D+4 Lean D Tossup D Favored Lean D 1988
Nebraska CD-2 1 7.2 R R+4 Tossup Lean R No rating Tossup 2008
Nevada 6 6.7 D D+2 Tossup Tossup Tilt D Tossup 2004
New Hampshire 4 5.6 D D+1 Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D 2000
North Carolina 15 2.0 R R+3 Tossup Tossup Tossup Tossup 2008
Ohio 18 3.0 D R+1 Tossup Tossup Tossup Lean R 2004
Pennsylvania 20 5.4 D D+1 Lean D Tossup Lean D Lean D 1988
Virginia 13 3.9 D Even Likely D Tossup Lean D Lean D 2004
Wisconsin 10 6.9 D D+2 Lean D Tossup Tilt D Lean D 1984

Party conventions

Map of United States showing Philadelphia, Cleveland, and Orlando
Philadelphia
Philadelphia
Cleveland
Cleveland
Orlando
Orlando
Houston
Houston
Salt Lake City
Salt Lake City
class=notpageimage|
Sites of the 2016 national party conventions
Constitution Party

Main article: 2016 Constitution Party National Convention
  • April 13–16, 2016: Constitution Party National Convention was held in Salt Lake City, Utah.[187]
Libertarian Party

Main article: 2016 Libertarian National Convention
  • May 26–30, 2016: Libertarian National Convention was held in Orlando, Florida.[188][189]
Republican Party

Main article: 2016 Republican National Convention
Democratic Party

Main article: 2016 Democratic National Convention
  • July 25–28, 2016: Democratic National Convention was held in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania.[192]
Green Party

Main article: 2016 Green National Convention

Campaign finance

This is an overview of the money used in the campaign as it is reported to Federal Election Commission (FEC) and released in September 2016. Outside groups are independent expenditure only committees—also called PACs and SuperPACs. The sources of the numbers are the FEC and Center for Responsive Politics.[195] Some spending totals are not available, due to withdrawals before the FEC deadline. As of September 2016, ten candidates with ballot access have filed financial reports with the FEC.

Candidate Campaign committee (as of August 31) Outside groups (as of September 12) Total spent
Money raised Money spent Cash on hand Debt Money raised Money spent Cash on hand
Hillary Clinton[196][197] $386,343,313 $317,914,036 $68,429,276 $214,311 $143,509,897 $102,406,835 $41,103,062 $420,320,871
Donald Trump[198][199] $169,731,955 $119,471,512 $50,260,442 $0 $40,007,484 $27,773,044 $12,234,440 $147,244,556
Rocky De La Fuente[200] $6,941,792 $6,922,609 $19,183 $6,924,793 $0 $0 $0 $6,922,609
Gary Johnson[201][202] $7,937,914 $5,445,399 $2,493,150 $1,538,118 $530,100 $5,000 $525,100 $5,450,399
Jill Stein[203][204] $2,762,007 $2,608,275 $153,732 $40,000 $0 $0 $0 $2,608,275
Evan McMullin[205] $322,441 $277,814 $44,626 $0 $0 $0 $0 $277,814
Gloria La Riva[206] * $25,234 $10,092 $15,140 $0 $0 $0 $0 $10,092
Darrell Castle[207] * $10,289 $7,313 $2,976 $2,500 $0 $0 $0 $7,313
Monica Moorehead[208] * $5,320 $3,882 $1,437 $2,000 $0 $0 $0 $3,882
Peter Skewes[209] * $6,994 $3,399 $7,189 $8,000 $0 $0 $0 $3,399
* Last quarterly report filed June 30  

Debates

Primary election debates

Main articles: Democratic Party presidential debates and forums, 2016; Green Party presidential debates and forums, 2016; Libertarian Party presidential debates and forums, 2016; and Republican Party presidential debates and forums, 2016

General election debates

Main article: United States presidential election debates, 2016

Map of United States showing debate locations
Hofstra University Hempstead, NY
Hofstra University
Hempstead, NY
Longwood University Farmville, VA
Longwood University
Farmville, VA
Washington University St. Louis, MO
Washington University
St. Louis, MO
University of Nevada Las Vegas
University of Nevada
Las Vegas
University of Colorado Boulder
University of Colorado Boulder
class=notpageimage|
Sites of the 2016 general election debates

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD), a non-profit organization, plans to host debates between qualifying presidential and vice-presidential candidates. According to the commission's website, to be eligible to opt to participate in the anticipated debates, "... in addition to being Constitutionally eligible, candidates must appear on a sufficient number of state ballots to have a mathematical chance of winning a majority vote in the Electoral College, and have a level of support of at least 15 percent of the national electorate as determined by five selected national public opinion polling organizations, using the average of those organizations' most recently publicly-reported results at the time of the determination."[210]

The three locations chosen to host the presidential debates, and the one location selected to host the vice presidential debate, were announced on September 23, 2015. The site of the first debate was originally designated as Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio; however, due to rising costs and security concerns, the debate was moved to Hofstra University in Hempstead, New York.[211]

On August 19, Trump's campaign manager confirmed that he would participate in a series of three debates.[212][213][214][215] Trump had complained that two of the scheduled debates, one on September 26 and the other October 9, will have to compete for viewers with National Football League games, referencing the similar complaints made regarding the dates with low expected ratings during the Democratic Party presidential debates.[216]

The Free & Equal Elections Foundation plans to host an open debate among all presidential candidates who have ballot access sufficient to represent a majority of electoral votes.[217] It is to be held at the University of Colorado Boulder's Macky Auditorium on October 25, 2016.[218] As of May 2016, the nominees of the Democratic, Republican, Libertarian, and Green parties have been invited to participate.[218]

Debates among candidates for the 2016 U.S. presidential election
No. Date Time Host City Moderator(s) Participants
P1 September 26, 2016 9:00 ET Hofstra University Hempstead, New York Lester Holt Hillary Clinton
Donald Trump
VP October 4, 2016 TBA Longwood University Farmville, Virginia Elaine Quijano Tim Kaine
Mike Pence
P2 October 9, 2016 TBA Washington University in St. Louis St. Louis, Missouri Anderson Cooper
Martha Raddatz 		TBD
P3 October 19, 2016 TBA University of Nevada, Las Vegas Las Vegas, Nevada Chris Wallace TBD
P4 October 25, 2016 4 pm MT University of Colorado Boulder Boulder, Colorado TBA TBD
       = Sponsored by the CPD;        = Sponsored by Free & Equal

Forecasting

There are many ways to try and predict the outcome of this (or any other) election. Since the advent of scientific polling in 1936, opinion polls have been a nearly universally accepted method to predict the outcome of elections throughout the world. More recently, prediction markets have been formed, starting in 1988 with Iowa Electronic Markets.

Academic scholars have constructed models of voting behavior to forecast the outcomes of elections. An early successful model which is still being used is The Keys to the White House by Allan Lichtman. Election forecasting in the United States was first brought to the attention of the wider public by Nate Silver and his FiveThirtyEight website in 2008. For the 2016 election, there are many competing models: FiveThirtyEight, The Upshot at the New York Times, Daily Kos, Princeton Election Consortium, Cook Political Report, Rothenberg and Gonzales.

Finally, PredictWise aggregates information from betting markets, opinion polls, and bookie data, and PollyVote takes a simple average of six types of inputs: prediction markets, index models, expert judgment, citizen forecasts, poll aggregators and econometric models. PollyVote's final predictions of the last three presidential elections were within 0.9% of the two-party popular vote. In 2016, it has shown a Democratic advantage of 4 to 7 percentage points since March.

All of these models have consistently shown a Democratic advantage (of varying sizes) ever since the nominees were confirmed.

See also

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