Growth of photovoltaics: Difference between revisions

Europe North America Middle East and Africa 2019 Global estimate*	Asia-Pacific China Rest of the world 2020 Global forecast* 2021 Global forecast*
	*(2019/20/21 tentative figures, no regional split-up)
	Recent and estimated capacity (GWp)
none or unknown 0.1–10 watts 10–100 watts	100–200 watts 200–400 watts 400–600 watts
	History of cumulative PV capacity worldwide
reached before 2014 reached after 2014	only for peak prices predicted U.S. states

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Worldwide growth of photovoltaics has been close to exponential between 1992 and 2018. During this period of time, photovoltaics (PV), also known as solar PV, evolved from a niche market of small-scale applications to a mainstream electricity source. ^{[citation needed]}

When solar PV systems were first recognized as a promising renewable energy technology, subsidy programs, such as feed-in tariffs, were implemented by a number of governments in order to provide economic incentives for investments. For several years, growth was mainly driven by Japan and pioneering European countries. As a consequence, cost of solar declined significantly due to experience curve effects like improvements in technology and economies of scale. Several national programs were instrumental in increasing PV deployment, such as the Energiewende in Germany, the Million Solar Roofs project in the United States, and China's 2011 five-year-plan for energy production.^[13] Since then, deployment of photovoltaics has gained momentum on a worldwide scale, increasingly competing with conventional energy sources. In the early 21st century a market for utility-scale plants emerged to complement rooftop and other distributed applications.^[14] By 2015, some 30 countries had reached grid parity.^[15]^: 9

Since the 1950s, when the first solar cells were commercially manufactured, there has been a succession of countries leading the world as the largest producer of electricity from solar photovoltaics. First it was the United States, then Japan,^[16] followed by Germany, and currently China.

By the end of 2018, global cumulative installed PV capacity reached about 512 gigawatts (GW), of which about 180 GW (35%) were utility-scale plants.^[17] Solar power supplied about 3% of global electricity demand in 2019.^[18] In 2018, solar PV contributed between 7% and 8% to the annual domestic consumption in Italy, Greece, Germany, and Chile. The largest penetration of solar power in electricity production is found in Honduras (14%). Solar PV contribution to electricity in Australia is edging towards 9%, while in the United Kingdom and Spain it is close to 4%. China and India moved above the world average of 2.55%, while, in descending order, the United States, South Korea, France and South Africa are below the world's average.^[9]^: 76

Projections for photovoltaic growth are difficult and burdened with many uncertainties.^{[citation needed]} Official agencies, such as the International Energy Agency (IEA) have consistently increased their estimates for decades, while still falling far short of projecting actual deployment in every forecast.^[19]^[20]^[21] Bloomberg NEF projects global solar installations to grow in 2019, adding another 125–141 GW resulting in a total capacity of 637–653 GW by the end of the year.^[22] By 2050, the IEA foresees solar PV to reach 4.7 terawatts (4,674 GW) in its high-renewable scenario, of which more than half will be deployed in China and India, making solar power the world's largest source of electricity.^[23]^[24]

Added PV capacity by country in 2017 (by percent of world total, clustered by region)^[25]

China (55.8%)

Japan (7.4%)

South Korea (1.3%)

India (9.6%)

Australia (1.3%)

United States (11.2%)

Brazil (0.9%)

Turkey (2.7%)

Germany (1.9%)

United Kingdom (0.9%)

France (0.9%)

Netherlands (0.9%)

Rest of Europe (1.5%)

Rest of the World (3.7%)

Solar PV nameplate capacity

Nameplate capacity denotes the peak power output of power stations in unit watt prefixed as convenient, to e.g. kilowatt (kW), megawatt (MW) and gigawatt (GW). Because power output for variable renewable sources is unpredictable, a source's average generation is generally significantly lower than the nameplate capacity. In order to have an estimate of the average power output, the capacity can be multiplied by a suitable capacity factor, which takes into account varying conditions - weather, nighttime, latitude, maintenance. Worldwide, the average solar PV capacity factor is 11%.^[26] In addition, depending on context, the stated peak power may be prior to a subsequent conversion to alternating current, e.g. for a single photovoltaic panel, or include this conversion and its loss for a grid connected photovoltaic power station.^[3]^: 15^[27]^: 10

Wind power has different characteristics, e.g. a higher capacity factor and about four times the 2015 electricity production of solar power. Compared with wind power, photovoltaic power production correlates well with power consumption for air-conditioning in warm countries. As of 2017^[update] a handful of utilities have started combining PV installations with battery banks, thus obtaining several hours of dispatchable generation to help mitigate problems associated with the duck curve after sunset.^[28]^[29]

Current status

Worldwide

In 2017, photovoltaic capacity increased by 95 GW, with a 34% growth year-on-year of new installations. Cumulative installed capacity exceeded 401 GW by the end of the year, sufficient to supply 2.1 percent of the world's total electricity consumption.^[30]

Regions

As of 2018, Asia was the fastest growing region, with almost 75% of global installations. China alone accounted for more than half of worldwide deployment in 2017. In terms of cumulative capacity, Asia was the most developed region with more than half of the global total of 401 GW in 2017.^[25] Europe continued to decline as a percentage of the global PV market. In 2017, Europe represented 28% of global capacity, the Americas 19% and Middle East 2%.^[25] However with respect to per capita installation the European Union has more than twice the capacity compared to China and 25% more than the US.

Solar PV covered 3.5% and 7% of European electricity demand and peak electricity demand, respectively in 2014.^[4]^: 6

Countries and territories

Worldwide growth of photovoltaics is extremely dynamic and varies strongly by country. The top installers of 2019 were China, the United States, and India.^[31] There are 37 countries around the world with a cumulative PV capacity of more than one gigawatt. The available solar PV capacity in Honduras is sufficient to supply 14.8% of the nation's electrical power while 8 countries can produce between 7% and 9% of their respective domestic electricity consumption.

Solar PV capacity by country and territory (MW) and share of total electricity consumption
	2016^[30]		2017^[25]		2018^[32]^[33]		2019^[18]^[34]		2020^[35]^[36]		W per capita 2019	Share of total consumption¹
Country or territory	New	Total	New	Total	New	Total	New	Total	New	Total	W per capita 2019	Share of total consumption¹
China	34,540	78,070	53,000	131,000	45,000	175,018	30,100	204,700	49,655	254,355	147	3.9% (2019)^[18]
European Union		101,433		107,150	8,300	115,234	16,000	134,129	18,788	152,917	295	4.9% (2019)^[18]
United States	14,730	40,300	10,600	51,000	10,600	53,184	13,300	60,682		75,572	231	2.8% (2019)^[18]
Japan	8,600	42,750	7,000	49,000	6,500	55,500	7,000	63,000		67,000	498	7.6% (2019)^[18]
Germany	1,520	41,220	1,800	42,000	3,000	45,930	3,900	49,200		53,783	593	8.6% (2019)^[18]
India	3,970	9,010	9,100	18,300	10,800	26,869	9,900	35,089		39,211	32	7.5% (2019)^[18]
Italy	373	19,279	409	19,700		20,120	600	20,800		21,600	345	7.5% (2019)^[18]
Australia	839	5,900	1,250	7,200	3,800	11,300	3,700	15,928		17,627	637	8.1% (2019)^[18]
Vietnam		6		9		106	4,800	5,695	10,909	16,504	60
South Korea	850	4,350	1,200	5,600	2,000	7,862	3,100	11,200		14,575	217	3.1% (2019)^[18]
Spain^[37]		4,669		4,688		4,707		8,711		14,089	186	4.8% (2019)^[18]
United Kingdom	1,970	11,630	900	12,700		13,108	233	13,346	177	13,563	200	4.0% (2019)^[18]
France	559	7,130	875	8,000		9,483	900	9,900	1,833	11,733	148	2.4% (2019)^[18]
Netherlands	525	2,100	853	2,900	1,300	4,150		6,725		10,213	396	3.6% (2018)^[33]
Brazil^[38]^[39]			900	1,100		2,413	2,138	4,595	3,145	7,881	22	1.7% (2019)^[18]
Ukraine	99	531	211	742	1,200	2,003	3,500	4,800		7,331	114	1.3% (2019)^[40]
Turkey	584	832	2,600	3,400	1,600	5,063		5,995		6,668	73	5.1% (2019)^[18]
South Africa	536	1,450	13	1,800		2,559		2,561		5,990	44	1.4% (2018)^[33]
Taiwan						2,618		4,100		5,817	172
Belgium	170	3,422	284	3,800		4,026		4,531		5,646	394	5.7% (2019)^[18]
Mexico	150	320	150	539	2,700	3,200		4,426		5,644	35	2.6% (2018)^[33]
Poland						487		1,300	2,636	3,936	34
Canada	200	2,715	212	2,900		3,113		3,310		3,325	88	0.6% (2018)^[33]
Greece						2,652		2,763		3,247	258	8.1% (2019)^[18]
Chile	746	1,610	668	1,800		2,137		2,648		3,205	142	8.5% (2019)^[18]
Switzerland	250	1,640	260	1,900	346	2,246		2,524	594	3,118	295	3.6% (2018)^[33]
Thailand	726	2,150	251	2,700		2,720		2,982		2,988	43	2.3% (2018)^[33]
United Arab Emirates		42		255		494		1,783		2,539	185
Austria	154	1,077	153	1,250		1,431		1,578		2,220	178	2.0% (2018)^[33]
Czech Republic	48	2,131	63	2,193		2,078		2,070		2,073	194	3.5% (2018)^[33]
Hungary						665		1,277		1,953	131
Egypt		48		169		750		1,647		1,694	17
Malaysia	54	286	50	386		438		882		1,493	28	0.8% (2018)^[33]
Israel	130	910	60	1,100		1,070		1,190		1,439	134	4.7% (2019)^[41]
Russia	15	77	159	236	310	546		1,064		1,428	7
Sweden	60	175	93	303		421		644		1,417	63	0.4% (2018)^[33]
Romania		1,372		1,374		1,377		1,386		1,387	71	2.8% (2018)^[33]
Jordan		298		471		829		998		1,359	100
Denmark	70	900	60	910		998		1,079		1,300	186	2.9% (2018)^[33]
Bulgaria		1,028		1,036	0	1,036		1,065		1,073	152	3.8% (2018)^[33]
Philippines	756	900				886		922		1,048	9
Portugal	58	513	57	577		670		828		1,025	81	2.2% (2018)^[33]
Argentina		9		9		191		442		764
Pakistan		589		655		679		713		737	6
Morocco		202		204		734		734		734	6
Slovakia		533		528		472		472		593	87	2.1% (2018)^[33]
Honduras		414		451		485		511		514	53	14.8% (2019)^[18]
Algeria		219		400		423		423		448	10
El Salvador		28		126		206		391		429
Iran	34	43	141	184	102	286	81	367	85	414	5	0.4% (2019)^[33]
Saudi Arabia		24		34		84		409		409
Finland^[42]	17	37	23	80	53.1	134		215		391	39	0.2% (2018)^[33]
Dominican Republic		73		106		205		305		370
Peru		146		298		325		331		331
Singapore		97		118		160		255		329	45	0.8% (2018)^[43]
Bangladesh		161		185		201		284		301	2
Slovenia		232		247		247		264		267
Uruguay		89		243		248		254		256
Yemen		80		100		250		250		253
Iraq		37		37		216		216		216
Cambodia		18		29		29		99		208
Cyprus	14	84	21	105		113		129		200	147	3.3% (2016)^[44]
Panama		93		147		193		198		198
Luxembourg		122		127		134		150		195	244
Malta	20	93	19	112		127		154		184	312	6.5% (2017)^[45]
Indonesia		88		98		98		155		172
Cuba		37		65		128		159		163
Belarus		51		153		157		157		159
Senegal		43		113		134		134		155	8
Norway	11	27	18	45	23	68		90		152	17	0.0% (2018)^[33]
Lithuania^[32]	1	70	4	74	10	84		103		148	37
Namibia		36		70		88		135		145	55
New Zealand		53		70		90		117		142
Estonia		10		15		32		121		130
Bolivia		6		8		70		120		120
Oman		2		8		8		9		109
Colombia		2		11		86		90		107
Kenya		32		39		105		106		106
Guatemala		93		99		101		101		101
Croatia^[32]	8	56	4	60	1	61		69		85	17
World total	76,800	306,500	95,000	401,500		510,000		580,760		713,970	83	3.0% (2019)^[18]
¹ Share of total electricity consumption for latest available year

25

50

75

100

125

150

2007

2009

2011

2013

2015

2017

2019

2021

Historical and projected global demand for solar PV (new installations, GW).
Source: GTM Research, Q2 2017^[46]

History of leading countries

The United States was the leader of installed photovoltaics for many years, and its total capacity was 77 megawatts in 1996, more than any other country in the world at the time. From the late 1990s, Japan was the world's leader of solar electricity production until 2005, when Germany took the lead and by 2016 had a capacity of over 40 gigawatts. In 2015, China surpassed Germany to become the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power,^[47] and in 2017 became the first country to surpass 100 GW of installed capacity.

United States (1954–1996)

The United States, where modern solar PV was invented, led installed capacity for many years. Based on preceding work by Swedish and German engineers, the American engineer Russell Ohl at Bell Labs patented the first modern solar cell in 1946.^[48]^[49]^[50] It was also there at Bell Labs where the first practical c-silicon cell was developed in 1954.^[51]^[52] Hoffman Electronics, the leading manufacturer of silicon solar cells in the 1950s and 1960s, improved on the cell's efficiency, produced solar radios, and equipped Vanguard I, the first solar powered satellite launched into orbit in 1958.

In 1977 US-President Jimmy Carter installed solar hot water panels on the White House promoting solar energy^[53] and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory, originally named Solar Energy Research Institute was established at Golden, Colorado. In the 1980s and early 1990s, most photovoltaic modules were used in stand-alone power systems or powered consumer products such as watches, calculators and toys, but from around 1995, industry efforts have focused increasingly on developing grid-connected rooftop PV systems and power stations. By 1996, solar PV capacity in the US amounted to 77 megawatts–more than any other country in the world at the time. Then, Japan moved ahead.

Japan (1997–2004)

Japan took the lead as the world's largest producer of PV electricity, after the city of Kobe was hit by the Great Hanshin earthquake in 1995. Kobe experienced severe power outages in the aftermath of the earthquake, and PV systems were then considered as a temporary supplier of power during such events, as the disruption of the electric grid paralyzed the entire infrastructure, including gas stations that depended on electricity to pump gasoline. Moreover, in December of that same year, an accident occurred at the multibillion-dollar experimental Monju Nuclear Power Plant. A sodium leak caused a major fire and forced a shutdown (classified as INES 1). There was massive public outrage when it was revealed that the semigovernmental agency in charge of Monju had tried to cover up the extent of the accident and resulting damage.^[54]^[55] Japan remained world leader in photovoltaics until 2004, when its capacity amounted to 1,132 megawatts. Then, focus on PV deployment shifted to Europe.

Germany (2005–2014)

In 2005, Germany took the lead from Japan. With the introduction of the Renewable Energy Act in 2000, feed-in tariffs were adopted as a policy mechanism. This policy established that renewables have priority on the grid, and that a fixed price must be paid for the produced electricity over a 20-year period, providing a guaranteed return on investment irrespective of actual market prices. As a consequence, a high level of investment security lead to a soaring number of new photovoltaic installations that peaked in 2011, while investment costs in renewable technologies were brought down considerably. In 2016 Germany's installed PV capacity was over the 40 GW mark.

China (2015–present)

China surpassed Germany's capacity by the end of 2015, becoming the world's largest producer of photovoltaic power.^[56] China's rapid PV growth continued in 2016 – with 34.2 GW of solar photovoltaics installed.^[57] The quickly lowering feed in tariff rates^[58] at the end of 2015 motivated many developers to secure tariff rates before mid-year 2016 – as they were anticipating further cuts (correctly so^[59]). During the course of the year, China announced its goal of installing 100 GW during the next Chinese Five Year Economic Plan (2016–2020). China expected to spend ¥1 trillion ($145B) on solar construction^[60] during that period. Much of China's PV capacity was built in the relatively less populated west of the country whereas the main centres of power consumption were in the east (such as Shanghai and Beijing).^[61] Due to lack of adequate power transmission lines to carry the power from the solar power plants, China had to curtail its PV generated power.^[61]^[62]^[63]

History of market development

Prices and costs (1977–present)

Swanson's law – the PV learning curve

Price decline of c-Si solar cells

Type of cell or module	Price per Watt
Multi-Si Cell (≥18.6%)	$0.071
Mono-Si Cell (≥20.0%)	$0.090
G1 Mono-Si Cell (>21.7%)	$0.099
M6 Mono-Si Cell (>21.7%)	$0.100
275W - 280W (60P) Module	$0.176
325W - 330W (72P) Module	$0.188
305W - 310W Module	$0.240
315W - 320W Module	$0.190
>325W - >385W Module	$0.200
Source: EnergyTrend, price quotes, average prices, 13 July 2020 ^[64]

The average price per watt dropped drastically for solar cells in the decades leading up to 2017. While in 1977 prices for crystalline silicon cells were about $77 per watt, average spot prices in August 2018 were as low as $0.13 per watt or nearly 600 times less than forty years ago. Prices for thin-film solar cells and for c-Si solar panels were around $.60 per watt.^[65] Module and cell prices declined even further after 2014 (see price quotes in table).

This price trend was seen as evidence supporting Swanson's law (an observation similar to the famous Moore's Law) that states that the per-watt cost of solar cells and panels fall by 20 percent for every doubling of cumulative photovoltaic production.^[66] A 2015 study showed price/kWh dropping by 10% per year since 1980, and predicted that solar could contribute 20% of total electricity consumption by 2030.^[67]

In its 2014 edition of the Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy report, the International Energy Agency (IEA) published prices for residential, commercial and utility-scale PV systems for eight major markets as of 2013 (see table below).^[23] However, DOE's SunShot Initiative report states lower prices than the IEA report, although both reports were published at the same time and referred to the same period. After 2014 prices fell further. For 2014, the SunShot Initiative modeled U.S. system prices to be in the range of $1.80 to $3.29 per watt.^[68] Other sources identified similar price ranges of $1.70 to $3.50 for the different market segments in the U.S.^[69] In the highly penetrated German market, prices for residential and small commercial rooftop systems of up to 100 kW declined to $1.36 per watt (€1.24/W) by the end of 2014.^[70] In 2015, Deutsche Bank estimated costs for small residential rooftop systems in the U.S. around $2.90 per watt. Costs for utility-scale systems in China and India were estimated as low as $1.00 per watt.^[15]^: 9

Typical PV system prices in 2013 in selected countries (USD)
USD/W	Australia	China	France	Germany	Italy	Japan	United Kingdom	United States
Residential	1.8	1.5	4.1	2.4	2.8	4.2	2.8	4.9¹
Commercial	1.7	1.4	2.7	1.8	1.9	3.6	2.4	4.5¹
Utility-scale	2.0	1.4	2.2	1.4	1.5	2.9	1.9	3.3¹
Source: IEA – Technology Roadmap: Solar Photovoltaic Energy report, September 2014'^[23]^: 15 ¹U.S figures are lower in DOE's Photovoltaic System Pricing Trends^[68]

According to the International Renewable Energy Agency, a "sustained, dramatic decline" in utility-scale solar PV electricity cost driven by lower solar PV module and system costs continued in 2018, with global weighted average levelized cost of energy of solar PV falling to US$0.085 per kilowatt-hour, or 13% lower than projects commissioned the previous year, resulting in a decline from 2010 to 2018 of 77%.^[71]

Technologies (1990–present)

There were significant advances in conventional crystalline silicon (c-Si) technology in the years leading up to 2017. The falling cost of the polysilicon since 2009, that followed after a period of severe shortage (see below) of silicon feedstock, pressure increased on manufacturers of commercial thin-film PV technologies, including amorphous thin-film silicon (a-Si), cadmium telluride (CdTe), and copper indium gallium diselenide (CIGS), led to the bankruptcy of several thin-film companies that had once been highly touted.^[72] The sector faced price competition from Chinese crystalline silicon cell and module manufacturers, and some companies together with their patents were sold below cost.^[73]

Global PV market by technology in 2013.^[74]^: 18, 19

CdTe (5.1%)

a-Si (2.0%)

CIGS (2.0%)

mono-Si (36.0%)

multi-Si (54.9%)

In 2013 thin-film technologies accounted for about 9 percent of worldwide deployment, while 91 percent was held by crystalline silicon (mono-Si and multi-Si). With 5 percent of the overall market, CdTe held more than half of the thin-film market, leaving 2 percent to each CIGS and amorphous silicon.^[75]^: 24–25

CIGS technology

Copper indium gallium selenide (CIGS) is the name of the semiconductor material on which the technology is based. One of the largest producers of CIGS photovoltaics in 2015 was the Japanese company Solar Frontier with a manufacturing capacity in the gigawatt-scale. Their CIS line technology included modules with conversion efficiencies of over 15%.^[76] The company profited from the booming Japanese market and attempted to expand its international business. However, several prominent manufacturers could not keep up with the advances in conventional crystalline silicon technology. The company Solyndra ceased all business activity and filed for Chapter 11 bankruptcy in 2011, and Nanosolar, also a CIGS manufacturer, closed its doors in 2013. Although both companies produced CIGS solar cells, it has been pointed out, that the failure was not due to the technology but rather because of the companies themselves, using a flawed architecture, such as, for example, Solyndra's cylindrical substrates.^[77]

CdTe technology

The U.S.-company First Solar, a leading manufacturer of CdTe, built several of the world's largest solar power stations, such as the Desert Sunlight Solar Farm and Topaz Solar Farm, both in the Californian desert with 550 MW capacity each, as well as the 102 MW_AC Nyngan Solar Plant in Australia (the largest PV power station in the Southern Hemisphere at the time) commissioned in mid-2015.^[78] The company was reported in 2013 to be successfully producing CdTe-panels with a steadily increasing efficiency and declining cost per watt.^[79]^: 18–19 CdTe was the lowest energy payback time of all mass-produced PV technologies, and could be as short as eight months in favorable locations.^[75]^: 31 The company Abound Solar, also a manufacturer of cadmium telluride modules, went bankrupt in 2012.^[80]

a-Si technology

In 2012, ECD solar, once one of the world's leading manufacturer of amorphous silicon (a-Si) technology, filed for bankruptcy in Michigan, United States. Swiss OC Oerlikon divested its solar division that produced a-Si/μc-Si tandem cells to Tokyo Electron Limited.^[81]^[82] Other companies that left the amorphous silicon thin-film market include DuPont, BP, Flexcell, Inventux, Pramac, Schuco, Sencera, EPV Solar,^[83] NovaSolar (formerly OptiSolar)^[84] and Suntech Power that stopped manufacturing a-Si modules in 2010 to focus on crystalline silicon solar panels. In 2013, Suntech filed for bankruptcy in China.^[85]^[86]

Silicon shortage (2005–2008)

In the early 2000s, prices for polysilicon, the raw material for conventional solar cells, were as low as $30 per kilogram and silicon manufacturers had no incentive to expand production.

However, there was a severe silicon shortage in 2005, when governmental programmes caused a 75% increase in the deployment of solar PV in Europe. In addition, the demand for silicon from semiconductor manufacturers was growing. Since the amount of silicon needed for semiconductors makes up a much smaller portion of production costs, semiconductor manufacturers were able to outbid solar companies for the available silicon in the market.^[87]

Initially, the incumbent polysilicon producers were slow to respond to rising demand for solar applications, because of their painful experience with over-investment in the past. Silicon prices sharply rose to about $80 per kilogram, and reached as much as $400/kg for long-term contracts and spot prices. In 2007, the constraints on silicon became so severe that the solar industry was forced to idle about a quarter of its cell and module manufacturing capacity—an estimated 777 MW of the then available production capacity. The shortage also provided silicon specialists with both the cash and an incentive to develop new technologies and several new producers entered the market. Early responses from the solar industry focused on improvements in the recycling of silicon. When this potential was exhausted, companies have been taking a harder look at alternatives to the conventional Siemens process.^[88]

As it takes about three years to build a new polysilicon plant, the shortage continued until 2008. Prices for conventional solar cells remained constant or even rose slightly during the period of silicon shortage from 2005 to 2008. This is notably seen as a "shoulder" that sticks out in the Swanson's PV-learning curve and it was feared that a prolonged shortage could delay solar power becoming competitive with conventional energy prices without subsidies.

In the meantime the solar industry lowered the number of grams-per-watt by reducing wafer thickness and kerf loss, increasing yields in each manufacturing step, reducing module loss, and raising panel efficiency. Finally, the ramp up of polysilicon production alleviated worldwide markets from the scarcity of silicon in 2009 and subsequently lead to an overcapacity with sharply declining prices in the photovoltaic industry for the following years.

Solar overcapacity (2009–2013)

Solar module production

utilization of production capacity in %

Utilization rate of solar PV module production capacity in % since 1993^[89]^: 47

As the polysilicon industry had started to build additional large production capacities during the shortage period, prices dropped as low as $15 per kilogram forcing some producers to suspend production or exit the sector. Prices for silicon stabilized around $20 per kilogram and the booming solar PV market helped to reduce the enormous global overcapacity from 2009 onwards. However, overcapacity in the PV industry continued to persist. In 2013, global record deployment of 38 GW (updated EPIA figure^[3]) was still much lower than China's annual production capacity of approximately 60 GW. Continued overcapacity was further reduced by significantly lowering solar module prices and, as a consequence, many manufacturers could no longer cover costs or remain competitive. As worldwide growth of PV deployment continued, the gap between overcapacity and global demand was expected in 2014 to close in the next few years.^[90]

IEA-PVPS published in 2014 historical data for the worldwide utilization of solar PV module production capacity that showed a slow return to normalization in manufacture in the years leading up to 2014. The utilization rate is the ratio of production capacities versus actual production output for a given year. A low of 49% was reached in 2007 and reflected the peak of the silicon shortage that idled a significant share of the module production capacity. As of 2013, the utilization rate had recovered somewhat and increased to 63%.^[89]^: 47

Anti-dumping duties (2012–present)

After anti-dumping petition were filed and investigations carried out,^[91] the United States imposed tariffs of 31 percent to 250 percent on solar products imported from China in 2012.^[92] A year later, the EU also imposed definitive anti-dumping and anti-subsidy measures on imports of solar panels from China at an average of 47.7 percent for a two-year time span.^[93]

Shortly thereafter, China, in turn, levied duties on U.S. polysilicon imports, the feedstock for the production of solar cells.^[94] In January 2014, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce set its anti-dumping tariff on U.S. polysilicon producers, such as Hemlock Semiconductor Corporation to 57%, while other major polysilicon producing companies, such as German Wacker Chemie and Korean OCI were much less affected. All this has caused much controversy between proponents and opponents and was subject of debate.

History of deployment

Deployment figures on a global, regional and nationwide scale are well documented since the early 1990s. While worldwide photovoltaic capacity grew continuously, deployment figures by country were much more dynamic, as they depended strongly on national policies. A number of organizations release comprehensive reports on PV deployment on a yearly basis. They include annual and cumulative deployed PV capacity, typically given in watt-peak, a break-down by markets, as well as in-depth analysis and forecasts about future trends.

Timeline of the largest PV power stations in the world
Year^(a)	Name of PV power station	Country	Capacity MW
1982	Lugo	United States	1
1985	Carrisa Plain	United States	5.6
2005	Bavaria Solarpark (Mühlhausen)	Germany	6.3
2006	Erlasee Solar Park	Germany	11.4
2008	Olmedilla Photovoltaic Park	Spain	60
2010	Sarnia Photovoltaic Power Plant	Canada	97
2011	Huanghe Hydropower Golmud Solar Park	China	200
2012	Agua Caliente Solar Project	United States	290
2014	Topaz Solar Farm^(b)	United States	550
2015	Longyangxia Dam Solar Park	China	850
2016	Tengger Desert Solar Park	China	1547
2019	Pavagada Solar Park	India	2050
2020	Bhadla Solar Park	India	2245
2024	Midong Solar Park	China	3500
Also see list of photovoltaic power stations and list of notable solar parks (a) year of final commissioning (b) capacity given in MW_AC otherwise in MW_DC

Worldwide annual deployment

2018: 103,000 MW (20.4%)
2017: 95,000 MW (18.8%)
2016: 76,600 MW (15.2%)
2015: 50,909 MW (10.1%)
2014: 40,134 MW (8.0%)
2013: 38,352 MW (7.6%)
2012: 30,011 MW (5.9%)
2011: 30,133 MW (6.0%)
2010: 17,151 MW (3.4%)
2009: 7,340 MW (1.5%)
2008: 6,661 MW (1.3%)
before: 9,183 MW (1.8%)

Annual PV deployment as a %-share of global total capacity (estimate for 2018).^[2]^[95]

Due to the exponential nature of PV deployment, most of the overall capacity has been installed in the years leading up to 2017 (see pie-chart). Since the 1990s, each year has been a record-breaking year in terms of newly installed PV capacity, except for 2012. Contrary to some earlier predictions, early 2017 forecasts were that 85 gigawatts would be installed in 2017.^[96] Near end-of-year figures however raised estimates to 95 GW for 2017-installations.^[95]

25,000

50,000

75,000

100,000

125,000

150,000

2002

2006

2010

2014

2018

Global annual installed capacity since 2002, in megawatts (hover with mouse over bar).

annual deployment since 2002 2016: 76.8 GW 2018: 103 GW (estimate)

Worldwide cumulative

Worldwide growth of solar PV capacity was an exponential curve between 1992 and 2017. Tables below show global cumulative nominal capacity by the end of each year in megawatts, and the year-to-year increase in percent. In 2014, global capacity was expected to grow by 33 percent from 139 to 185 GW. This corresponded to an exponential growth rate of 29 percent or about 2.4 years for current worldwide PV capacity to double. Exponential growth rate: P(t) = P₀e^rt, where P₀ is 139 GW, growth-rate r 0.29 (results in doubling time t of 2.4 years).

The following table contains data from multiple different sources. For 1992–1995: compiled figures of 16 main markets (see section All time PV installations by country), for 1996–1999: BP-Statistical Review of world energy (Historical Data Workbook)^[97] for 2000–2013: EPIA Global Outlook on Photovoltaics Report^[3]^: 17

1990s
Year	Capacity^A MW_p	Δ%^B	Refs
1991	n.a.	–	^C
1992	105	n.a.	^C
1993	130	24%	^C
1994	158	22%	^C
1995	192	22%	^C
1996	309	61%	^[97]
1997	422	37%	^[97]
1998	566	34%	^[97]
1999	807	43%	^[97]
2000	1,250	55%	^[97]

2000s
Year	Capacity^A MW_p	Δ%^B	Refs
2001	1,615	27%	^[3]
2002	2,069	28%	^[3]
2003	2,635	27%	^[3]
2004	3,723	41%	^[3]
2005	5,112	37%	^[3]
2006	6,660	30%	^[3]
2007	9,183	38%	^[3]
2008	15,844	73%	^[3]
2009	23,185	46%	^[3]
2010	40,336	74%	^[3]

2010s
Year	Capacity^A MW_p	Δ%^B	Refs
2011	70,469	75%	^[3]
2012	100,504	43%	^[3]
2013	138,856	38%	^[3]
2014	178,391	28%	^[2]
2015	221,988	24%	^[98]
2016	295,816	33%	^[98]
2017	388,550	31%	^[98]
2018	488,741	26%	^[98]
2019	586,421	20%	^[98]
2020	713,970	21%	^[99]

Legend:

^A Worldwide, cumulative nameplate capacity in megawatt-peak MW_p, (re-)calculated in DC power output.

^B annual increase of cumulative worldwide PV nameplate capacity in percent.

^C figures of 16 main markets, including Australia, Canada, Japan, Korea, Mexico, European countries, and the United States.

Deployment by country

See section Forecast for projected photovoltaic deployment in 2017

Number of countries with PV capacities in the gigawatt-scale

10

20

30

40

2005